Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Taiwan’s exports beat expectations in November, but the underlying story is more complex.
- Demand from the US continues to slip, but monthly trends appear to be stabilising at the very least.
- Inflation in November was hot, but most of this was likely due to a weather-related bump in food price
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The 0.3% rise in the core CPI was powered by jumps in vehicle and hotel room prices, which are volatile...
- ...These components have a much smaller weight in the core PCE, which likely rose by just 0.2%.
- Expect 0.2% core PCE prints in December and January, but tariffs threaten to upend the benign trend.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — Hit by elevated fiscal uncertainty
- Mexico — Contingent on external conditions
- Chile — Commodities and politics to watch
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A significant rate hike to control inflation expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A significant rate hike to control inflation expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Pointing to a 0.2% core PCE print; the FOMC can ease again with a clear conscience.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent re-acceleration in growth in AHE looks like noise; few other timely gauges are picking up.
- Most reliable indicators of labor demand point to underlying wage growth falling below 4% soon.
- Wage growth won’t hold up Fed easing, provided Mr.Trump’s immigration bark is worse than his bite.
Samuel TombsUS
- US - Slowdown in payroll growth confirms monetary policy still is too tight
- EUROZONE - ECB to ease by 25bp this week and tee up a cut in January too
- UK - LFS revisions cut productivity and raise inflation pressure
- CHINA+ - Japanese consumption activity still weak, as BoJ monitors wage trends
- EM ASIA - RBI holds, just, but more grounds laid for a February rate cut
- LATAM - Disinflation in Mexico leaves door open to further policy normalisation
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- Brazil faces significant economic challenges as inflation and geopolitical tensions escalate in 2025.
- We expect bold policy action today; the inflation outlook has deteriorated sharply due to the BRL sell-off.
- The next meeting will mark a transition, as the new governor will have to tackle the inflation pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Q3 bounce in Indonesian retail sales growth is over, with consumer confidence still fading…
- …Weak sentiment is a bigger long-run worry than the coming VAT hike, especially with inflation so low.
- The ballooning of the Philippines’ trade deficit reflects in large part renewed misery for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Politburo signalled a change in monetary policy stance to “moderately loose” from “prudent”.
- Further mentions of a consumption boost still don’t mean large-scale We stern-style handouts are likely.
- The Politburo’s mindset on structural issues hasn’t changed; we expect a December RRR cut .
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- This year our EZ GDP growth forecasts were decent; we were close to the final outcome 50% of the time.
- Our forecasts on inflation were on the money, mostly, notwithstanding a wobble at the start of the year.
- Our ECB calls have been correct at each meeting, and our SNB forecasts were right 75% of the time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Tobacco duties and base effects will drive up CPI inflation to 2.6% in November, from 2.3% in October.
- CPI services inflation should tick up to 5.1% in November, above the MPC’s 4.9% forecast.
- We see upside risk to our forecasts for airfares and accommodation services.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: The near-two-year-long recession in Italian industry is not over yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services inflation will bring the headline down soon, but another increase in December is a decent bet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
An unexpectedly weak start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales
The bad—and good—aspects of the Philippines’ widening trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-year yields will stay pinned close to 2% at the start of the year, before rising gradually…
- …But we expect the 2s10s Bund curve to start bearsteepening early next year.
- We think the early 2000s represent a good playbook for the ECB’s next moves on interest rates.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Business and consumer surveys suggest hiring paused before the October Budget.
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in November, and the October jobless rate held at 4.3%.
- A strong DMP survey points to 0.3% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE growth in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the November core CPI, leaving the inflation rate unchanged since June.
- Hotel and auto insurance prices likely picked up; residual seasonality threatens other services prices.
- The FOMC will ease policy again next week, but November data will bolster case for a January pause.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s disinflation is continuing as core pressures ease further, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
- Geopolitical uncertainty around the new US administration’s policies could hit the economic outlook.
- Sticky core inflation and high policy uncertainty complicate BanRep’s ability to accelerate rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
