An unexpectedly weak start to Q4 for Indonesian retail sales
The bad—and good—aspects of the Philippines’ widening trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-year yields will stay pinned close to 2% at the start of the year, before rising gradually…
- …But we expect the 2s10s Bund curve to start bearsteepening early next year.
- We think the early 2000s represent a good playbook for the ECB’s next moves on interest rates.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Business and consumer surveys suggest hiring paused before the October Budget.
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in November, and the October jobless rate held at 4.3%.
- A strong DMP survey points to 0.3% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE growth in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mexico’s disinflation is continuing as core pressures ease further, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
- Geopolitical uncertainty around the new US administration’s policies could hit the economic outlook.
- Sticky core inflation and high policy uncertainty complicate BanRep’s ability to accelerate rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core inflation continues to fall, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core inflation continues to fall, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Politics weigh on investor sentiment at year end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The REC weakens in November as the Budget tax hikes bite.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: That’s more like it, but Q3 details flatter to deceive.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A lackluster post-election pick-up confidence; inflation worries in check for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Improving, but net trade in services will be a drag on growth in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by a plunge in energy production; core manufacturing fell slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI takes a halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP
Philippine sales fall to their lowest level in over a year
High base from last year’s healthcare price rises pulls Vietnamese inflation down in November
Vietnamese sales growth remains sluggish, in reality
Ignore the headline trade misses, the real story is that Vietnamese export momentum is waning, rapidly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Philippines’ consensus-matching CPI print for November sets the stage nicely for a third rate cut.
- Food disinflation led to the downside CPI surprise in Thailand last month, but expect no December cut.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP grow th fell to 4.2%, from 4.9% in Q2; blame consumption, stocks and net exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in October, despite a fall in retail sales.
- Professional services should rebound, and a jump in GP appointments signals strong healthcare growth.
- We still expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, but risks lie to the downside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In France, Mr. Macron must go back to the drawing board as his government is ousted.
- German orders and French industrial production show industry was still on the back foot in October…
- ...Clouds continue to form on the horizon, even if some boost will come from pre-tariff US orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
