In one line: Goods spending is not benefitting from the recovery in real incomes, yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Exit poll projects large Labour majority.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Faster goods inflation pushes up the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The turn in Philippine inflation is finally here
Vehicle sales in Singapore continue to flatter headline retail sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still weak but registrations will pick up later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Two steps forward, one step back.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More encouragement for the MPC to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Private payroll growth slowed sharply in Q2; revisions could easily worsen the picture.
- Tight monetary policy is the primary cause; employment growth will slow further in Q3.
- Wage growth now is consistent with the 2% inflation target; the Fed will ease multiple times in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
- The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
- Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Extremely good CPI data for June, if like us you expect the BSP and the BoT to cut rates in August.
- Taiwanese headline inflation picked up in June on goods inflation, amid still-sticky services inflation.
- A continued improvement in external demand should see Singaporean GDP growth rise in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
- The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
- The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Keir Starmers’ huge majority will allow him to quickly enact supply side reforms, starting with planning.
- We expect an Autumn Budget to boost government borrowing £10-£20B a year.
- The MPC will still cut rates in September, but they will reduce rates only gradually after that.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We’re sticking with our forecast that payrolls rose by 160K in June, below the 190K consensus.
- The unemployment rate likely was unchanged at 4.0%, but large sampling error creates uncertainty.
- Neither the ISM or S&P services PMI is clearly better than the other; the truth likely lies between the two.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US