Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 December 2024

The RBI takes a halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP
Philippine sales fall to their lowest level in over a year
High base from last year’s healthcare price rises pulls Vietnamese inflation down in November
Vietnamese sales growth remains sluggish, in reality
Ignore the headline trade misses, the real story is that Vietnamese export momentum is waning, rapidly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 6 December 2024: Japan's nominal wage growth is steady

Japan's nominal wage growth is steady

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 December 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor All clear for a third straight BSP rate cut later this month

• The Philippines’ consensus-matching CPI print for November sets the stage nicely for a third rate cut.
• Food disinflation led to the downside CPI surprise in Thailand last month, but expect no December cut.
• Taiwan’s Q3 GDP grow th fell to 4.2%, from 4.9% in Q2; blame consumption, stocks and net exports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 December 2024 China+ Monitor China's currency weakens after effective deposit-rate cut

• Recent USDCNY weakness is largely a reflection of broad dollar strength…
• …But also falling Chinese government-bond yields, after an effective deposit-rate cut.
• November’s Caixin services PMI points to resilient activity but deflation pressure.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 December 2024 UK Monitor Professional services to drive a 0.2% month-to-month GDP gain

• We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in October, despite a fall in retail sales.
• Professional services should rebound, and a jump in GP appointments signals strong healthcare growth.
• We still expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, but risks lie to the downside.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

6 December 2024 Eurozone Monitor France loses its government; EZ industry starts Q4 on weak footing

• In France, Mr. Macron must go back to the drawing board as his government is ousted. 
• German orders and French industrial production show industry was still on the back foot in October… 
• ...Clouds continue to form on the horizon, even if some boost will come from pre-tariff US orders.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 December 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's economy sees decent start to Q4 amid fiscal challenges for 2025

• Chile’s economic recovery faces challenges from weak sentiment and external risks.
• Fiscal issues persist as the government plans spending cuts to address revenue shortfalls ahead.
• Inflation in Peru remains within the target range, signalling that the end of the easing cycle is nearing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 December 2024 US Monitor Are consumers' inflation expectations about to break higher?

• Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
• ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
• A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.

Samuel TombsUS

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, November

In one line: China’s non-manufacturing growth stalls in November as construction weighs on activity. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, November

In one line: China’s stimulus continues to give manufacturing activity a modest lift amid looming geopolitical uncertainty

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, November

In one line: Korea’s WDA exports rebound in November, but looming protectionist risks loom over growth.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q3

In one line: Japan’s Q3 GDP is a mixed bag, with private consumption surprising on the upside but business investment falling.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, October

In one line: China's credit growth slows to historic lows amid muted household and business loan demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 November 2024

China's deflation risks persist in October, but there is a silver lining

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, October

In one line: China’s headline producer deflation masks stimulus-driven price upticks in construction materials

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, October

In one line: China’s CPI near deflation weighed down by volatile items; uptick in services inflation 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Current Account, China, Q3

In one line: China’s Q3 current account surplus widens; inward FDI remains negative for second consecutive quarter 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, October

In one line: One month’s data can be misleading; China's quarterly export growth has, in fact, decelerated.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, October

In one line: China’s foreign reserves drop in October amid dollar strength and outflow pressures.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+