In one line: Japan’s wage growth holds steady, supporting case for BoJ hike in early 2025; Our revised forecasts post-Trump victory show weaker growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Budget hit sentiment, but we take some encouragement from the large upward revision to the PMI.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: S Payroll tax hikes boost inflation more than they cut wages.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Budget keeps construction growth solid for now, but boosts inflation pressure and cuts optimism.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Signs that private demand is turning.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Down but will likely recover to year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The government falls; industrial production on track for a fall in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A market-matching CPI reading to set up another BSP cut
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Falling at the start of Q4; will risk of higher US trade tariffs lead to a temporary gain?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Services companies see few reasons for cheer in the election result.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil’s industrial sector remains relatively resilient, but tighter financial conditions will be a drag in 2025.
- The trade balance shows the surplus is shrinking, indicating challenges from external demand.
- Chile’s inflation picture remains benign, despite recent volatility; the BCCh will continue to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The RBI held the repo rate on Friday in a closer four-to-two vote, but surprised with a 50bp CRR cut…
- … A lot can change before the February repo cut we expect ; a new, dovish governor and lower food CPI.
- Vietnam’s November trade headlines missed badly, but the real story is underlying weakness in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The ECB will cut its main policy rates by 25bp this week; listen closely for references to the neutral rate.
- Ms. Lagarde will struggle to meet dovish market expectations this week; expect hawkish re-pricing.
- EZ domestic demand jumped in Q3, but growth is set to come down sharply in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- At least 17 government-set or inflation-indexed prices in the CPI will change between November and April.
- To help clients keep track of these ‘known knowns’ we will regularly update a table of estimated impacts.
- We expect the known knowns to prevent services inflation slowing between October and April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazilian Real — Fiscal noise has hit badly
- Colombian Peso — Resilient, but downside forces loom.
- Chilean Peso — External pressures and copper dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
