Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- November's meager rebound in payrolls implies the trend still is slowing; revisions will worsen the picture.
- The rise in NFIB's hiring intentions index is politics induced noise; demand for new staff is very weak.
- The unemployment rate is on a steady rising trend; an immigration rush before new rules will reinforce it.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s industrial sector remains relatively resilient, but tighter financial conditions will be a drag in 2025.
- The trade balance shows the surplus is shrinking, indicating challenges from external demand.
- Chile’s inflation picture remains benign, despite recent volatility; the BCCh will continue to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The RBI held the repo rate on Friday in a closer four-to-two vote, but surprised with a 50bp CRR cut…
- … A lot can change before the February repo cut we expect ; a new, dovish governor and lower food CPI.
- Vietnam’s November trade headlines missed badly, but the real story is underlying weakness in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s real household spending fell further in October as people tighten their purse strings.
- Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in November, held back by willingness to buy durable goods.
- The BoJ will probably hike rates this month, as long as market risks from Korean politics are contained.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB will cut its main policy rates by 25bp this week; listen closely for references to the neutral rate.
- Ms. Lagarde will struggle to meet dovish market expectations this week; expect hawkish re-pricing.
- EZ domestic demand jumped in Q3, but growth is set to come down sharply in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- At least 17 government-set or inflation-indexed prices in the CPI will change between November and April.
- To help clients keep track of these ‘known knowns’ we will regularly update a table of estimated impacts.
- We expect the known knowns to prevent services inflation slowing between October and April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Continuing claims data, after revisions, are a good guide to the trend in short-term unemployment...
- ...But unemployment is more broadly defined and is subject to large sampling error; noise can dominate.
- Residential construction payrolls look likely to plunge, given the ongoing slump in homebuilding.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Fiscal noise has hit badly
- Colombian Peso — Resilient, but downside forces loom.
- Chilean Peso — External pressures and copper dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our energy inflation forecasts have shifted higher in recent weeks, as 2025 gas prices have firmed.
- Barring a big shift in oil prices, inflation in liquid fuels will trough in Q2 and then rise for most of H2 2025.
- Wholesale gas prices now point to positive inflation in the electricity and gas HICP for most of 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI fell to a 13-month low in November as businesses worried about taxes and trade wars.
- But take the implications for GDP growth with a pinch of salt; the PMI overreacts to political events.
- The MPC will look through the November PMI and stick to its ‘gradual rate cut’ message.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid, but high interest rates will be a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Pointing to downside risks still, but probably overdoing it.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Pointing to downside risks still, but probably overdoing it.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Caixin services PMI slows a notch
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Continued food disinflation in Thailand mutes the headline’s November uptick
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the pick-up in job openings; less volatile data from Indeed point to an ongoing downward trend.
- Low net hiring throughout October suggests payroll growth slowed primarily due to underlying weakness.
- ADP's data is a useless guide to the official estimate of private payrolls, including for every specific sector.
Samuel TombsUS
- Korea’s headline export growth eased in November, but work-day-adjusted data showed a bounce-back.
- The rebound was driven by stronger ASEAN shipments; overall growth momentum is slowing.
- We expect the BoK to ease by 75bp in 2025 to counteract the increasingly uncertain export outlook.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Brazil’s economy performed strongly in Q3, despite the hit from elevated real interest rates.
- Solid private consumption and resilient capex offset the drag from less supportive external conditions.
- The outlook is deteriorating, as higher rates—due to fiscal noise—start to stifle economic activity.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss inflation edged up but remains low enough for the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 50bp next week...
- ...New Chairman Martin Schlegel’s recent comments support our call for a bigger-than-consensus cut.
- French budget woes are pulling the OAT-Bund spread up towards the 100bp mark.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
