Continued food disinflation in Thailand mutes the headline’s November uptick
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Korea’s headline export growth eased in November, but work-day-adjusted data showed a bounce-back.
- The rebound was driven by stronger ASEAN shipments; overall growth momentum is slowing.
- We expect the BoK to ease by 75bp in 2025 to counteract the increasingly uncertain export outlook.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Brazil’s economy performed strongly in Q3, despite the hit from elevated real interest rates.
- Solid private consumption and resilient capex offset the drag from less supportive external conditions.
- The outlook is deteriorating, as higher rates—due to fiscal noise—start to stifle economic activity.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss inflation edged up but remains low enough for the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 50bp next week...
- ...New Chairman Martin Schlegel’s recent comments support our call for a bigger-than-consensus cut.
- French budget woes are pulling the OAT-Bund spread up towards the 100bp mark.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Stronger population growth boosts official LFS employment estimates by 402K in Q2…
…Cutting productivity, as well as raising unit wage costs and therefore estimated inflation pressure.
Ignore the drop in November BRC retail sales as the data are distorted by the timing of Black Friday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - November payrolls to indicate the trend is still slowing
- EUROZONE - ECB likely to cut by 25bp this month, and the same in January
- UK - MPC splits into three camps to match its three scenarios
- CHINA+ - Tokyo headline inflation jump mostly due to food and energy inflation
- EM ASIA -India’s disastrous Q3 GDP print has been long in the making
- LATAM -Brazil facing rising inflation and economic issues ahead of rate hikes
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Solid, but high interest rates will be a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Solid, but high interest rates will be a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Late Black Friday cuts retail sales growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Still low enough for a 50bp rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mexico’s outlook for the coming quarters has deteriorated, but H2 2025 shows promise.
- US tariffs may disrupt supply chains and harm both nations, but pragmatism likely will prevail.
- Fiscal consolidation strategies seek to stabilise the economy amid rising inflation and external threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN ticked up to 50.8 in November, but its downtrend remains intact.
- More softness is in store heading into 2025; activity is uneven, and forward-looking gauges are falling.
- Indonesian inflation fell further in November to a 40-month low, opening the door more to rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Detailed data show a jump in consumers’ spending prevented a fall in Italian GDP in Q3.
- Consumers will continue to lead the way, and we are revising up our call for Q4 growth.
- But GDP will still likely rise by just 0.5% this year, half of the government’s latest forecast.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Tobacco duties and base effects will push up CPI inflation to 2.6% in November, from 2.3% in October.
- We expect energy and food to add 14bp to inflation, and core goods another 15bp, compared to October.
- CPI inflation 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecastwould rule out a December rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tentative signs of improvement, but still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
