Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- May’s huge fall in payrolls looks exaggerated; other indicators, such as redundancies, are improving.
- Rising LFS employment and falling payrolls point to workers shifting towards self-employment.
- Wage growth is easing gradually but still remains way above inflation-target-consistent rates.
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.
In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.
In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.
In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.
In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows
In one line : China's services activity ticks up, but deflationary pressure still lurking in the background.
In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.
IGNORE THE STAMP-DUTY-INDUCED PULLBACK...
- ...HOUSE PRICES WILL STILL GAIN 4.5% IN 2025
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
- Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
- …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
- Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.
- China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
- Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
- Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.
- EZ compensation per employee growth slowed in Q1, in line with easing negotiated wage growth.
- Other measures out in the coming days are likely to also show slower wage growth in Q1.
- We suspect wage growth will now plateau in the 2.5%-to-3.0% range, remaining historically high.
- We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
- A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
- May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it.
Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity
China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices
- In one line: Disinflation remains on track.
- In one line: Disinflation remains on track.
Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.
