Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, June

In one line: Just a stumble, we hope.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, June

In one line: Just a stumble, we hope.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+Datanote: Official & Caixin Manufacturing PMIs, China, June

Mixed picture for China's manufacturers

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 July 2024 Mixed picture for China's manufacturers

Mixed picture for China's manufacturers

Japanese and Korean firms hit by mounting import costs

Korean exports lifted by AI-chip demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 July 2024

ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI, June

 PMI's June surge tells us nothing about the national picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, May

 The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, May, 2024

• In one line: A mixed performance, with activity struggling, but the job market remains resilient for now.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Unemployment rate, Brazil, May, 2024

• In one line: Going from strength to strength.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, May

• In one line: Steady, but downside risks linger.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q1 2024

• In one line: GDP growth rebounds as consumers find their mojo.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, JuneIn one line: Rising jobless claims likely will lift unemployment further in the near term.

In one line: Rising jobless claims likely will lift unemployment further in the near term.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April

• In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Advance Inflation in France & Spain, and French Consumers' Spending, June/May 2024

In one line: EZ headline and core inflation still on track for marginal declines in June.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, June

Tokyo consumer inflation nudged up by the removal of energy subsidies

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, June, 2024

• In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 July 2024 US Monitor May's PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough

• Real consumption set for another 1.5% increase in Q2; a rising saving rate will slow growth further soon.
• The 0.08% core PCE print was driven by noisy components, but underlying services inflation eased too.
• We look for another sub-50 ISM manufacturing index in June; tight monetary policy is preventing a revival.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

1 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts

• Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
• Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
• The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America