In one line: Rising enough to prevent a 50bp cut in December, we think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Rising enough to prevent a 50bp cut in December, we think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: French inflation signals EZ HICP in line with the consensus.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A setback, but seasonals look unduly restrictive.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Switzerland will still outperform the EZ this year, despite slower growth in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The boost from ‘other’ sales fades, again; no noticeable immediate lift from the first cash-handout.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: HICP headline likely held back by falling food inflation, but the core firmed.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
MARKET REPRICES FOR FEWER RATE CUTS...
- ...AND WE NOW SEE HOUSE PRICES RISING BY 4% IN DECEMBER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Headline oddly stable; consumer inflation expectations surge.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The rebound in narrow money is accelerating.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: In line with expectations, just about.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Expect an unconvincing 250K gain in November jobs; October weakness was more than Milton and strikes.
- The low response rate for October's estimate adds to uncertainty over the size of November's recovery...
- ...But household survey and claims data also suggest October’s slowing had little to do with bad weather.
Samuel TombsUS
- Peru’s economy is thriving thanks to low inflation and interest rate cuts, despite external challenges.
- The near-term outlook remains positive, yet risks loom from Donald Trump’s potential policies.
- The Chancay mega-port positions Peru as a key player in global trade but introduces significant risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Taiwan unexpectedly fell by 0.5% year-over-year in October…
- …The Ministry of Economic Affairs attributes this to Typhoon Kong-rey; we see more to the story.
- We are optimistic that sales will bounce back inNovember, as one-off headwinds reverse.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Tokyo headline inflation leapt in November, mainly on the back of higher energy and fresh food inflation.
- Core inflation—excluding energy and fresh food—and services inflation only inched up.
- The BoJ is likely feeling boxed in by rising market bets on a December rate hike, implying 60% probability.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The scene is set for a hard-fought ECB meeting later this month; we still look for a 25bp cut…
- …But we’re adding a 25bp cut in January to our forecasts, as ECB doves now have the upper hand.
- Swiss GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, but we look for a rebound in Q4; the SNB will cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We trim our Q4 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, after weak GDP and the fall in the PMI.
- Unemployment is likely trending up gradually and wage growth is slowing.
- But services inflation and wage growth remain too strong, so the MPC will cut only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
