Tentative signs of recovery in the multi-family sector, but single-family starts look set to fall further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Services is sticky as ever, and it won’t drop meaningfully anytime soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Equipment investment likely leapt by about 7% in Q2, driven by surging transport and computer spending...
- ...But these components are volatile; high borrowing costs will weigh on capex unrelated to the AI boom.
- The jump in jobless claims was due to auto plant closures and Hurricane Beryl, but the trend is rising too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Latin American recovery faces headwinds as the US presidential election looms large on the horizon.
- Mr. Trump’s potential return to power threatens to disrupt LatAm economies and trade relations.
- Mexico is the most directly exposed, and Brazil the least vulnerable, to a potential Trump presidency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently.
- Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line…
- …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing downturn is over, but growth in output in the second half of this year will be sluggish.
- High mortgage rates and excess new home inventory suggest single-family housing starts will fall further.
- We look today for a pick-up in initial jobless claims, but the data are prone to unpredictable swings in July.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
- Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
- Chile — Boric navigates pension and energy reforms
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
- …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
- Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s residential sales are staging a modest and narrowly based revival, thanks to policy easing.
- But prices are still mostly falling, and the recovery is fragile given high housing inventories.
- A drawn-out and bumpy rebound is still the most likely scenario, gradually limiting the drag on growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July.
- Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe.
- Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
The single-family construction boom seems to be fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Dragged lower by a crash in exports.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone