Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Retail sales in Taiwan unexpectedly fell by 0.5% year-over-year in October…
- …The Ministry of Economic Affairs attributes this to Typhoon Kong-rey; we see more to the story.
- We are optimistic that sales will bounce back inNovember, as one-off headwinds reverse.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Tokyo headline inflation leapt in November, mainly on the back of higher energy and fresh food inflation.
- Core inflation—excluding energy and fresh food—and services inflation only inched up.
- The BoJ is likely feeling boxed in by rising market bets on a December rate hike, implying 60% probability.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The scene is set for a hard-fought ECB meeting later this month; we still look for a 25bp cut…
- …But we’re adding a 25bp cut in January to our forecasts, as ECB doves now have the upper hand.
- Swiss GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, but we look for a rebound in Q4; the SNB will cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We trim our Q4 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, after weak GDP and the fall in the PMI.
- Unemployment is likely trending up gradually and wage growth is slowing.
- But services inflation and wage growth remain too strong, so the MPC will cut only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
BoK makes surprise rate cut to bolster Korean growth, amid looming trade protectionism risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK makes surprise rate cut to bolster Korean growth, amid looming trade protectionism risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
EM ASIA IS PARTICULARLY EXPOSED TO ‘TRUMP 2.0’
- …INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES DISAPPOINT IN Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Revisions reveal a weaker trend in household income growth and a lower saving rate.
Samuel TombsUS
Low initial claims still consistent with rising unemployment, given very muted hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
ECB DOVES STILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND...
- ...BUT THEY WON’T GET A 50BP CUT IN DECEMBER
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoK surprised the market yesterday by cutting the base rate by 25bp to 3.00%.
- Growth risks figured prominently, notably related to US protectionism and China’s competitiveness.
- The BoK should keep easing, as long as USDKRW weakens roughly in line with other major currencies.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We still see EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% in November, but we’re lifting our core forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.9%.
- Our model, based on the negative skew in ESI data,still points to low recession risk in the EZ.
- The upturn in real M1 growth is a positive—andmincreasingly contrarian—signal for the EZ economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We cut our house price inflation forecast to 4.0% year-over-year in December 2024, from 4.5%...
- ...as higher market interest rate expectations mean mortgage rates will stabilise at current levels.
- The LFS reweighting will raise employment levels but have only a small effect on the employment rate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Politics rattle German consumers; we doubt falling sentiment will be reflected in spending figures.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by political uncertainty; rising unemployment fears look ominous.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's industrial profits extend their decline, hit by producer price deflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Mirroring the late 2016 surge, when spending growth was unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
Mostly a hurricane story, but sales probably will remain weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- China’s industrial profits extended their decline in October, though equipment-maker figures improved.
- Sinking property-construction demand and an epic coal-price correction are the key drags.
- Look out for supply-side reforms to rectify excess capacity at the Central Economic Work Conference.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
