Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s industrial profits extended their decline in October, though equipment-maker figures improved.
- Sinking property-construction demand and an epic coal-price correction are the key drags.
- Look out for supply-side reforms to rectify excess capacity at the Central Economic Work Conference.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Isabel Schnabel is pushing back on a 50bp cut in December, as well as market expectations for 2025.
- The game of chicken in French politics is weighing on sentiment; will the government fall?
- Consumer confidence in France and Germany was stung by political uncertainty in November.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A rash of MPC-speak in the past two weeks suggests broad agreement on “gradual” rate cuts.
- The MPC will wait to see pay settlements in the New Year before cutting again and firming guidance.
- We expect three 25bp cuts in 2025, with risk biased to more as a cautious MPC may need to catch up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
REBOUNDING GROWTH AND SLOWLY EASING WAGES
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN NOVEMBER AND THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Thai exports jump to a fresh high on the back of an ASEAN bump
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - How expansionary will fiscal policy really be under President Trump?
- EUROZONE - November PMIs won’t be enough for a 50bp cut in December
- UK - Wage growth will exceed the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - Japan’s core inflation is steady, despite headline dip in subsidies
- EM ASIA - BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over
- LATAM - Banxico faces challenges despite falling inflation and weak demand
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Trade re-routing and retailer margin compression likely will soften the tariff blow to consumer prices...
- ...Nevertheless, Mr. Trump's latest plans likely would lift the headline PCE deflator by a hefty 0.5% or so.
- Tariff “front-running” by companies looks set to step up soon, probably dragging slightly on GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Inflation is surging in Brazil due to temporary shocks, complicating matters for the COPOM.
- Colombia’s recovery continues, yet growth momentum remains subpar due to still-high interest rates…
- …The fiscal debate is intensifying, with significant budget cuts and worries about revenue shortfalls.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thailand’s customs trade balance has been deteriorating modestly for a few months…
- …Masking a now-complete recovery in nominal exports from their painful 2022 slump.
- No room for complacency, as leading indicators remain weak and the supply side is still sleeping.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EU would target manufactured goods such as machinery or aircraft if it retaliates with higher tariffs.
- In that case, Germany would be among the EZ economies facing higher inflation pressure…
- ...EZ imports likely would decline, lifting GDP growth, but the boost would be marginal overall.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BRC Shop Price Index suggests slightly slower food inflation but a jump in core goods in November.
- So we expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.6% year-over-year in November from 2.3% in October.
- The CBI retailing survey is useless, other data sources are stronger, retail sales will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Payrolls usually have been a better guide to the final GDP estimate one quarter ahead than current GDP...
- ...So the outlook for Q4 GDP likely is better signalled by the Q3 slowing in payrolls than still-strong GDP.
- Q4 consumption likely started strongly in October, but fading income growth is a troubling omen.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chile’s Q3 real GDP growth was driven by mining and manufacturing; private consumption is weak.
- Interest rate cuts likely will continue, but the end is approaching as inflation rises and global risks loom.
- The external balance is improving, but higher import costs and global trade tension threaten the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Japan’s November flash PMIs show manufacturing activity is still struggling.
- The service sector flash index paints a rosier picture of activity and sentiment.
- The output price PMIs point to stubbornly elevated inflation pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Inventory accumulation supported German GDP growth in Q2 and Q3; this will reverse in Q4 and Q1.
- The trend in disposable income growth still leaves room for an acceleration in consumption growth.
- We now see EZ GDP rising by just 0.1% in Q4, reflecting softness in Germany and France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Business and public services output drove the H1 GDP surge, and Q3 slowdown.
- Idiosyncratic factors and erratic professional services data explain weaker Q3 business services growth.
- Professional services should help Q4 GDP growth improve as those erratic factors unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash future output index of S&P composite PMI survey was no higher in November than in October.
- Consumers’ confidence is lower after the election than beforehand, according to the U. Mich survey.
- Employment and pricing indicators have continued to weaken; the FOMC very likely will ease next month.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Down like the PMI; recession risks remain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's MLF rate left on hold; more liquidity support needed to fund debt-swap bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line:Retail sales will rebound after budget uncertainty, mild weather and a calendar quirk cut October volumes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
