- The flash future output index of S&P composite PMI survey was no higher in November than in October.
- Consumers’ confidence is lower after the election than beforehand, according to the U. Mich survey.
- Employment and pricing indicators have continued to weaken; the FOMC very likely will ease next month.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Down like the PMI; recession risks remain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's MLF rate left on hold; more liquidity support needed to fund debt-swap bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line:Retail sales will rebound after budget uncertainty, mild weather and a calendar quirk cut October volumes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: PMI at a 13-month low makes a February rate cut a slam dunk, but the MPC will stay on hold in December.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: A plunge, defying leading indicators.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A plunge, defying leading indicators.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by falling activity and new orders; 12-month outlook slightly improved.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Stung by falling activity and new orders; 12-month outlook slightly improved.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Going nowhere, and Q4 won’t be much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan’s headline consumer inflation slows only thanks to energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Flash manufacturing PMI was hit by falling output, despite an improvement in export orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's headline inflation falls only thanks to energy subsidies
Flash manufacturing PMI weakens
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence recovers in November, but was held back by rising inflation and market interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Steady slide in India’s PMIs continues, despite the November pop in services
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Economic activity is slowing as inflation remains benign, raising rate-cut expectations for Banxico…
- …But external pressures and domestic challenges will complicate monetary policy decisions.
- Fiscal uncertainty looms as government revenue targets clash with growth forecasts for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The general downtrend in India’s PMIs is still very much in play, de spite the November services pop.
- Hiring is supposedly going gangbusters, based on the PMI, but the hard data still tell a different story.
- Indonesia is pushing ahead with a VAT hike to 12% in January; the last rise in 2022 is uninformative.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s October headline CPI inflation fell only because energy subsidies pulled down energy prices.
- Core inflation excluding energy has been steady for three straight months.
- Don’t expect a knee-jerk BoJ reaction after the end of energy subsidies lifts November’s headline inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
