Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Japan’s October headline CPI inflation fell only because energy subsidies pulled down energy prices.
- Core inflation excluding energy has been steady for three straight months.
- Don’t expect a knee-jerk BoJ reaction after the end of energy subsidies lifts November’s headline inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Sinking EZ PMIs bring back speculation about a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
- Domestic political uncertainty is weighing on French activity; Germany is still stuck in the mud.
- Long-leading indicators still signal a better near term outlook for growth than the PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI at a 13-month low signals stalling GDP growth, as the Budget hits sentiment.
- Stubborn PMI price pressures will keep the MPC on alert; it will wait till February to cut rates again.
- Retail sales will rebound after warmer weather and a calendar quirk exaggerated the drop in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WILL MARKETS’ ENTHUSIASM FOR MR. TRUMP PERSIST?
- …INFLATION RISKS ARE BIG ENOUGH TO SLOW FED EASING
Samuel TombsUS
Still weak, with no recovery likely anytime soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Up in manufacturing, down in services; GDP to flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Surging debt interest costs raise borrowing, leaving the Chancellor with little headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall marginally in September but the trend remains up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI's future output index will provide the first good gauge of post-election business confidence.
- Early evidence implies consumer confidence has leapt; we look for upward revisions to UoM's survey.
- October's bump left existing home sales at a very low level; further weakness likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Korean exports in the first 20 days of November maintained a respectable growth trend over October.
- Shipments to Taiwan and other key Asian economies were strong; they rose to the EU but fell to the US.
- Headline export growth was boosted by a one-off factor, a smaller drag from falling oil exports.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Germany, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Finland and Portugal are most exposed to US tariffs on Eurozone exports.
- An increase in tariffs on all products to 20% would drive a 5-to-10% fall in EZ export revenue.
- The devil is in the detail, however, and targeted tariffs could make a much bigger impact on EZ exports.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ballooning debt interest costs pushed public sector borrowing higher in October.
- The gilt yield rise since the Budget would almost wipe out the headroom against the fiscal rules.
- Ms. Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending if market interest rates remain at current levels.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China’s benchmark lending rates are steady this month, as regulators gauge the effect of September’s cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
