Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line:Surging debt interest costs raise borrowing, leaving the Chancellor with little headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean export growth picks up a notch, as chip shipments roar
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall marginally in September but the trend remains up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI's future output index will provide the first good gauge of post-election business confidence.
- Early evidence implies consumer confidence has leapt; we look for upward revisions to UoM's survey.
- October's bump left existing home sales at a very low level; further weakness likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Korean exports in the first 20 days of November maintained a respectable growth trend over October.
- Shipments to Taiwan and other key Asian economies were strong; they rose to the EU but fell to the US.
- Headline export growth was boosted by a one-off factor, a smaller drag from falling oil exports.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Germany, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Finland and Portugal are most exposed to US tariffs on Eurozone exports.
- An increase in tariffs on all products to 20% would drive a 5-to-10% fall in EZ export revenue.
- The devil is in the detail, however, and targeted tariffs could make a much bigger impact on EZ exports.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ballooning debt interest costs pushed public sector borrowing higher in October.
- The gilt yield rise since the Budget would almost wipe out the headroom against the fiscal rules.
- Ms. Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending if market interest rates remain at current levels.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China’s benchmark lending rates are steady this month, as regulators gauge the effect of September’s cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's LPRs on hold as regulators judge impact of earlier easing
Japan's export growth picks up modestly
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- -CHINA’S 2024 GDP TARGET IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
- - BOJ TO HOLD FAST UNTIL JANUARY, BARRING JPY SHOCK
- - BOK TO FOCUS ON COOLING INFLATION AND GROWTH
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The "DOGE" target of $2T savings is ludicrous, but spending cuts could offset some of the tax cuts.
- Lower fiscal multipliers for tax cuts than for tariff rises and spending cuts also point to a small GDP boost.
- Seasonal adjustment will depress today's jobless claims data; expect a slightly rising trend this winter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts for a second straight month, keeping the BI rate at 6.00%.
- Governor Warjiyo cited concerns over the rupiah, in view of less-aggressive Fed cuts under Trump 2.0.
- We still see the BI rate falling to a terminal level of 4.75% by end-2025, with risks to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s headline export growth improved in October, thanks to demand from non-traditional markets.
- This was largely due to price effects, however, with real export growth weakening in October.
- China’s government has paved the way for early issuance of 2025 special bond quota to support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Eurozone negotiated wage growth jumped in Q3, boosted by one-off payments in Germany.
- The Q3 leap in wage growth won’t faze the ECB, but it helps our call for a “small” 25bp cut in December.
- The EZ construction industry remains under the weather, despite some improvement in the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
