Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Households stunned by the tariff shock.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
LATAM SHIELDS ITSELF AMID TARIFF TURMOIL…
- …BUT VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS REMAIN ELEVATED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: House prices fall in April as the rush to beat stamp duty increases unwinds, they will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
