In one line: Subdued, but both the headline and core will rise in November.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Trade-in subsidies lift retail sales of autos and consumer goods
Residential sales stabilise
Manufacturing output making steady progress
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: An overdue bounce in demand from India moves the export recovery forward.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
An overdue bounce in demand from India moves Indonesia’s export recovery forward
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A modest cut while keeping the door open for further reductions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in October was a let-down, but it is stable, seasonality aside…
- …This is thanks to a broad-based export recovery; India is a weak spot, but it rebounded last month.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned in October, but due mainly to oil imports, not a bump in real demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Swiss GDP slowed in Q3, in line with expectations; the report is unlikely to worry the SNB.
- Intensifying deflation pressures, however, are an issue for the Bank; more cuts are coming.
- We doubt the SNB will lower rates below zero; it has other tools, but their effectiveness is patchy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Erratic falls in IT and industrial production output led GDP to fall by 0.1% month-to-month in September.
- Solid consumption and investment in Q3 suggest stronger fundamentals than headline GDP implies.
- GDP growth should rebound to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PCE components rose rapidly; on course for a 0.30% core PCE increase
Samuel TombsUS
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A solid Q3, but downside risks have emerged.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q3, but downside risks have emerged.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Oil imports are seeing an impressive—but likely temporary—revival.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Q3 GDP increase confirmed, despite yet another drag from industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The RICS price balance shrugs off Budget uncertainty to rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Food prices are still the main headache at the WPI level in India, too
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
