- Chile’s economy had a poor end to 2023, due to still-high interest rates and uneven consumer demand…
- …But the big picture is of an economy gradually gathering speed, and the outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will likely continue this year, accompanied by healthy external accounts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Singaporean exports fell into the red in February; blame Lunar New Year seasonal distortions...
- ...Export growth will likely resume its recovery path, albeit at a more gradual pace for most of H1.
- Malaysian export growth slowed in February, dragged down by a sharp drop in re-exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ inflation dipped in February, matching the first estimate; upside risks are now building for March.
- An upward surprise in the March and April inflation reports would put a June rate cut in jeopardy.
- We still struggle to see a perfect landing for inflation at 2%; how will the ECB respond to this?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still consistent with resilient growth in consumption, for now
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A one-off, or is the lumpy slide in non-oil imports finally over?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022
China’s property market rout continues, with prices falling further in February
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Fiscal stimulus likely to drive credit demand after the holiday period
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: The core is on track for sub-2%, despite sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The early 2024 misery in exports continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The early 2024 misery in Indonesian exports continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect the Bernanke review, due in April, to recommend three changes to MPC communication.
- These are: to publish interest rate projections, switch to a staff forecast and make more use of scenarios.
- This will cause volatility, as markets learn about the new communication, likely implemented in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials still point to upside risks for EURUSD.
- We continue to believe EURUSD is good value below 1.10; a rise to 1.15 should be possible.
- Spain will continue to outperform despite the government ditching its attempt to set a budget.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Indonesian exports disappointed greatly in February, with demand from China faltering again.
- The trade surplus has plunged to a four-year low; consensus for the 2024 current account is too rosy.
- We see Vietnam’s Q1 GDP print falling well short ofexpectations, at 5.4%, down from 6.7% in Q4.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The significant reduction in LatAm’s current account deficit last year appears promising…
- …But it was primarily due to weaker domestic demand; exports showed only modest resilience.
- The deficit is likely to widen again as the economy recovers, but better global demand will offset the hit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
