In one line: Early Korean exports slow, dragged down by weaker petroleum products and mobile handsets shipments.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Chinese banks lower LPR to preserve NIM amid falling mortgage rates for existing borrowers
Early Korean exports slow, dragged down by weaker petroleum products and mobile handsets shipments.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s core inflation remains strong; the BoJ is unmoved by CPI fall driven by transitory factors.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's Exports Fall Unexpectedly in September on Weaker Asian Shipments
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's Exports Fall Unexpectedly in September on Weaker Asian Shipments
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Uncertainty amid elevated risk
- Mexican Peso — Risks increase after Mr. Trump’s win
- Colombian Peso — Much noise for a vulnerable currency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Export growth in Vietnam fell further in October; this will persist, with momentum and orders fading.
- Mr. Trump's proposed tariffs could be a ‘win’ for Vietnam, if it isn’t targeted with specific measures…
- …His own corporate interests locally might mitigate the risks, but the VND will stay in the spotlight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A Trump presidency is more of an inflation threat to the EZ economy than a growth threat.
- We’re sticking with our call for the ECB to ease by less than markets expect next year.
- Will EZ export orders jump in the final stretch of Q4 as foreign firms scramble to beat potential tariffs?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Poor, and it will get worse at the start of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Caixin services PMI points to activity uptick
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Inventories spike keeps Indonesian GDP growth from slowing more sharply in Q3
Inflation in the Philippines should stabilise near the lower end of the BSP’s range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - The Fed would have to react to Trump’s trade tariffs this time
- EUROZONE - A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day
- UK - Ms. Reeves torches Governor Bailey’s plans for rapid rate cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase
- EM ASIA - The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Economic activity is showing signs of stagnation as key sectors struggle with persistent challenges.
- Political shifts indicate potential for business-friendly policies, given voter sentiment for change.
- Future growth prospects depend on effective reforms, and stability in external conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Indonesia missed expectations in Q3, slipping to 4.9% from 5.0% in Q2…
- …An historic leap in inventories prevented a sharper drop, but this sets up a painful payback in Q4.
- Trade and related investment were real bright spots, while consumption remains relatively lacklustre.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown.
- It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though.
- French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
