Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Donald Trump’s migration plans would hit growth in GDP and employment and likely push up inflation...
- ...But his campaign’s most extreme proposals for mass deportations seem unlikely to materialize.
- Ending election spending will depress consumption growth this winter, but leave jobs largely unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- Economic activity is showing signs of stagnation as key sectors struggle with persistent challenges.
- Political shifts indicate potential for business-friendly policies, given voter sentiment for change.
- Future growth prospects depend on effective reforms, and stability in external conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Indonesia missed expectations in Q3, slipping to 4.9% from 5.0% in Q2…
- …An historic leap in inventories prevented a sharper drop, but this sets up a painful payback in Q4.
- Trade and related investment were real bright spots, while consumption remains relatively lacklustre.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown.
- It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though.
- French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
- The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
- Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s economy remained solid in Q3, yet COPOM faces slowing momentum and external pressures.
- The BRL sell-off, linked to US election uncertainty, means COPOM will consider an aggressive rate hike.
- Peru’s core inflation rate has fallen, supporting further interest rate cuts by the BCRP this week.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PMI for ASEAN was unchanged in October, at 50.5, despite a post-Yagi bounce-back in Vietnam…
- …Export-oriented countries, at large, have lost a lot of steam recently, in a warning sign for world trade.
- Indonesia’s sluggishness is a huge drag, given its sheer size; the rise in lead times is reversing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Sell EURUSD and bonds if you’re convinced that Mr. Trump will win Tuesday’s US election.
- Leading indicators for EZ investment are downbeat, but growth still has room to rebound, a touch.
- Capacity utilisation rates point to robust growth in services capex, and the inventory cycle is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Weakness in the sector extends well beyond Boeing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, reflecting a significant decline to the lowest level since 2013.
- Record employment highlights a resilient labour market, but conditions likely will deteriorate soon.
- BanRep likely will continue to cut interest rates, but external conditions are a key near-term threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We see Indonesian GDP growth slipping to 4.8% in Q3 on waning consumption and a modest trade hit .
- Government spending and investment should offer some cushion, partly with help from base effects.
- Philippine GDP growth likely relapsed to 4.6% in Q3, in line with the sluggishness in consumption.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both of China’s October PMIs suggest that fiscal stimulus is star ting to take effect.
- The output price indices also rose, though it’s too early to pop a cork over China’s deflation fight.
- The PBoC’s new liquidity tool provides more flexibility in managing long-term funding.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss inflation surprised to the downside in October, falling to a 40-month low of just 0.6%.
- The headline will likely be further below the SNB’s call in Q4, so we now look for even more easing.
- A floor exists, however; the SNB is heading towards the zero lower bound.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
