In one line: Decent, and it will get better still.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Focus on the upturn in core orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
- Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
- We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
- A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
- The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
- …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
- A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
- Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
- Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely.
- We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March.
- For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP fell 0.2% month-to-month in April, as wet weather reduced consumer spending.
- We still expect 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q2, as retail sales should bounce back in May…
- ...Business surveys, moreover, suggest output growth remains robust.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Slowing inflation will make the MPC happy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
- Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
- The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
- Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
- …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
- The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+