Pantheon Publications

4 November 2024 EZ Monitor SNB heading towards the zero lower bound, rapidly

• Swiss inflation surprised to the downside in October, falling to a 40-month low of just 0.6%.
• The headline will likely be further below the SNB’s call in Q4, so we now look for even more easing.
• A floor exists, however; the SNB is heading towards the zero lower bound.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 November 2024 UK Monitor Forecast review: A stronger Budget outweighs weaker data for the MPC

• We cut our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
• Ms. Reeves’ Budget will keep the MPC from easing at back-to-back meetings this year.
• We expect four 25bp cuts from rate-setters in 2025, at a pace of one per quarter.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

October 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB DOVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND

• BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH 50BP IN DECEMBER

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, October 2024

In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

PM Datanote: BanRep Rate Decision, Colombia, October, 2024

• In one line: BanRep maintains steady 50bp rate cuts amid declining inflation and challenging global economic outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, September 2024

• In one line: Expectations of further rate cuts continue to lift the housing market and corporate borrowing.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, September

Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, October 26

Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, October

The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, October

China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 October 2024: China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI

China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open

Duncan WrigleyChina+

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, October 2024

In one line: Subdued. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Back in action!

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

October 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

MIXED RECOVERY FOR LATAM ECONOMIES

• …AMID TEMPORARY INFLATION PRESSURES AND EXTERNAL THREATS

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, September

Probably not the start of a strong recovery.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US GDP, Q3 Advance Estimate

Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, October

No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US