The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Overall credit growth still relatively sturdy, thanks to robust government bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Moderation in upstream food pressures in India is the real deal
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Focus on the hawkish inflation forecasts, rather than the dovish vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Employment stagnates but disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chinese start-up, DeepSeek, shattered the idea that better chips equate to better AI models...
- …Investors panicked, leading to a 6% plunge in TSMC shares after markets opened on February 3.
- The panic was overblown, yet TSMC does face other serious headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A peace deal or ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely to drive near-term relief in Eurozone energy prices.
- The EZ GDP growth slowdown in Q4 was smaller than previously thought...
- ...And EZ productivity growth picked up; or did it? Our ECB call is unchanged either way.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
- The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The BRC kickstarts the year with strong growth, we expect it to continue.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade deficit will be held back by high energy prices and President Trump’s tariff threats in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Looming end of stamp duty relief causes volatility, longer-term house price outlook still looks solid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Better-than-expected growth should reduce recession worries and suggests the PMI is exaggerating economic weakness.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: An ugly finish to 2024, and Q1 2025 will be difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.
Samuel TombsUS
