A headscratcher, but an unreliable signal for the broader economy.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real incomes, spending and core prices increases are all slowing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Struggling on a sequential basis, despite the solid headline numbers.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Domestic demand, including inventories, rose; net exports plunged.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The HICP comes in hot; April spending dented by Easter seasonals.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: House prices are resisting the mortgage rate rise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Disappointing, but don’t write off Q2 consumption just yet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
- Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
- Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, with growth slowing only modestly to 7.8% from 8.6% in Q4…
- …But an unsustainable jump in exports was the lone bright spot; domestic demand continues to slow.
- The slowdown in investment growth is intensifying, while private consumption remains woefully subpar.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The US has proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, which will have limited impact, in our view.
- Lithium batteries likely will be most affected, among other items targeted, with the US more exposed to it.
- China’s manufacturing activity shrank unexpectedly in May, suggesting more stimulus might be needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
- The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
- EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
- Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
- Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A housing market recovery is still some way off.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GDP details better than the headline, but growth is slowing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: The EZ labour market is in a good spot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone