Better headline numbers, but the underlying trend is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Methodological changes do not explain all the fall in the Michigan survey measure of consumers' confidence...
- ...Fewer people expect the Fed to ease soon, while layoff fears have grown; slower spending growth lies ahead.
- Equipment investment looks set for a weak second quarter, despite better-than-expected May orders.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s BCCh slowed its rate cutting pace to 50bp, citing lagged inflation pressures.
- It kept a relatively dovish tone, however, pointing to further easing in coming meetings, as FX fears ease.
- Board reaffirms data-dependent approach, highlights “clexibility” for future decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
- …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
- We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth drives a consumer upturn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A reassuring bounce in exports narrows the Songkran-adjusted deficit substantially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Construction and net trade propelled growth in Q1; neither will last.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan’s consumer inflation still cooling, as the BoJ monitors wage inflation and the impact of the weak JPY
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+