Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s National Day holiday saw only a modest tourism-sector boost, despite the jump in stocks.
- Consumers have more wealth tied up in property, whose outlook is still murky.
- The NDRC yesterday focused on better implementation of existing fiscal support.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September.
- We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2.
- Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- All of the undershoot relative to the MPC’s call is accounted for by falling motor fuel prices.
- CPI services inflation will likely slip 0.2pp to 5.4%, as a hotel price jump partially offset a fall in airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Upside risk for the September core CPI from sources including hotel room rates and auto insurance.
- Tickets for sports event probably leapt too; NFL admission costs 9% more this season.
- JD Power data point to rising prices for used autos; import prices flag a break from core goods deflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s exports are struggling as weak prices hit the mining/oil sectors and overall trade performance.
- Imports have surged, for the wrong reasons; domestic demand will ease soon.
- Domestic and external challenges are weighing on Mexico’s growth outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Vietnam surged to a two-year high in Q3, at 7.4%, handily outstripping expectations…
- …The quarterly profile shows only a trivial loss of steam, despite the damage from Typhoon Yagi.
- The critical export sector is still going strong, though FDI inflows now appear to be peaking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s FX reserves rose more than expected in September as the Fed started cutting interest rates.
- Foreign equity flows have likely improved, as China announced support measures at end-September.
- Looking ahead, a weaker dollar and further Fed cuts should bode well for China’s valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Comments from BdF Governor François Villeroy de Galhau all but guarantee a 25bp rate cut this month.
- EZ rate expectations and bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term outlook for inflation.
- We’ve lowered our bond yield forecasts, but still see bear-steepening of the yield curve next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- September business surveys suggest a hiring pause ahead of the October 30 Budget.
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in September and the August jobless rate held at 4.1%.
- The DMP and PAYE pay point to a 0.6% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Probably underestimating the true strength in sales.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Chinese stimulus boosts investor sentiment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The REC stays weak, supporting another 25bp rate cut in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Depressed by large orders; upside risks for industrial production in August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Base effects from late-2023 utility cuts lead modest headline uptick in Thai inflation
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Samuel TombsUS
- The scope for another downward revision to payrolls is high, given the low response rate in September.
- The dip in the unemployment rate is statistically insignificant; reliable surveys point to a rising trend.
- A 25bp easing in November remains a good bet, but labor market data will force a faster pace thereafter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has the chance to reshape policies and enhance capex.
- She must address drug-related violence, energy policies and maintain strong ties with the US.
- Proposed reforms spark concerns over increased executive power and its impact on key institutions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Philippine inflation dived below the BSP’s range in September, almost ensuring a 25bp cut next week…
- …Persistent under-capacity in heavy industry remains a fundamentally disinflationary force.
- Positive price effects and recovering vehicle sales continue to mask a slump in Singaporean retail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s stock market rally, against a backdrop of poor economic fundamentals, resembles 2015…
- …when the stock market went through a boom/bust cycle long before structural reforms got under way.
- History suggests China can take a while to find a good policy solution to difficult structural problems.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Eurozone house price growth rebounded strongly in Q2, and we think further increases are likely.
- We see signs that housing demand is picking up healthily amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will rise by 1.5% in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
