- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position.
- A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp.
- EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.7% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Petrol price falls will drag inflation down, while core price gains will remain firm.
- March is the calm before the storm of April price hikes, which should drive up headline inflation to 3.6%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Liberation Day to reduce uncertainty, but at what inflation cost?
- EUROZONE - Data signal an ECB pause in April, ‘Liberation Day’ permitting
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again
- EM ASIA - Unsurprisingly, Taiwan’s central bank continues to hold rates
- LATAM - Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- BanRep left rates on hold, due to persistent inflation pressures despite mixed progress…
- …But new Board members boost the doves’ influence, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead, COP permitting.
- Chile’s IMACEC highlights temporary setbacks in the recovery, but fundamentals point to sustained growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today?
- EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse.
- Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect zero GDP growth in February as services and construction offset falling industrial output.
- Risks to our call are broadly balanced, though manufacturing is subject to tariff-driven uncertainty.
- We continue to forecast 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: We now see the March EZ HICP up by 0.7% m/m, and by 2.2% y/y.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
