In one line: Soft in CPI, but the core HICP is sticky, and selling prices are rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Private consumption in Brazil slowed rapidly in Q4, and weakening fundamentals point to a poor H1.
- Falling consumer confidence and worsening PMIs highlight the continued economic struggles.
- Chile’s BCCh faces inflation pressures, amid speculation on potential interest rate hikes soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP surprised by hitting pause, blaming tariff uncertainty; we still see 100bp in cuts this year.
- Indian inflation dropped closer to the RBI’s 4% target in January; more downside in food is coming.
- We have lowered our 2025 average inflation fore- cast to 3.8%, with core price pressures also cooling.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Swiss inflation fell in January, and has been within the SNB’s target range for 20 straight months.
- The decline, and a further probable fall in February, solidifies the need for another rate cut.
- March’s cut will likely be the last in the current easing cycle, as inflation rises above SNB estimates in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Tax hikes and tariff uncertainty kept UK growth weak at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- But the economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% monthly gain in December.
- Strong consumer services spending suggests rapid real wage growth will help GDP rebound in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Indonesian sales boosted modestly by front-loading before the VAT rate hike
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Under severe strain, and risks are tilted to the downside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
