Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon.
- France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide.
- Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A Chancellor scrabbling for tax revenue will likely turn to alcohol and tobacco duty hikes.
- We expect Ms. Reeves to raise tobacco duty—by 4% above RPI inflation—and alcohol duty in December.
- Our forecasts include a 10% private-school fee hike, split September 2024, January and September 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The downtrend continues as non-core pressures ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
PBoC's policy support should stoke short-term market sentiment and growth, but won't solve China's structural woes
Japan's flash PMIs show mixed performance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US - The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame
- UK - Services inflation close to MPC’s forecast kept rates on hold
- CHINA+ - Deep structural adjustment weighing down China’s domestic
- EM ASIA - How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?
- LATAM - Brazil’s BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
- ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
- A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s inflation decline paves the way for Banxico to cut rates at tomorrow’s meeting.
- Weak economic growth is pressuring policymakers to ease further, but political noise will remain a risk.
- Brazil’s COPOM minutes signal caution, suggesting limited rate hikes amid slowing growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week…
- ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman.
- We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Growth will bounce back but easing inflation will lead the MPC to cut rates in November.
Samuel TombsUK
- We expect house price inflation to accelerate to 4.5% year-over-year in December.
- MPC rate cuts, solid wage growth and low unemployment will drive that housing rebound.
- Forward-looking indicators suggest upside risk; they point to 6% year-over-year house price gains.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI points to struggling manufacturing but it is volatile, watch the stronger PMI instead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales flattered by the weather, but the trend is up as real wage gains drive stronger spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoot widens, so the Chancellor will raise taxes and change the debt rule in the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tax hike fears cut consumers’ confidence, but we expect it to rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The GDP-GDI gap is big, but revisions usually result in GDI being pulled towards GDP, not vice-versa.
- Firms’ interest payments likely will be revised up, boosting the imputed interest income of households.
- The employment index of S&P’s PMI survey points to very weak growth in private payrolls this autumn.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s economy has started H2 on a solid footing, as temporary shocks fade and inflation falls…
- …But manufacturing remains under pressure and formal employment growth is slowing.
- Banxico’s upcoming rate decision has to balance inflation control and policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s PMIs are down concurrently year-over-year for the first time in a while, signalling 5% growth.
- Malaysian food inflation is likely to increase, but headline disinflation overall is still on track.
- Singapore’s core inflation rise is no cause for worry; domestic services inflation momentum is slowing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
- China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
- We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
