Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 November 2024

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMi rebounds as stimulus starts to take effect

Korea’s export momentum wanes in October amid despite semiconductor boost

Korea’s manufacturing sector sees mixed signals as PMI holds steady in October

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 October 2024

China's industrial profit plunge underscores urgent need for stimulus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, October

In one line: Tokyo inflation slows, but core pressure remain firm ahead of Sunday’s election; BoJ likely stands pat in next week’s meeting

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: MLF rate, China, October

In one line: China’s MLF rate unchanged after September’s cut; Tight funding conditions in banks open window for RRR cut

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25 October 2024

Tokyo inflation slows, but core pressure remain firm ahead of Sunday’s election; BoJ likely stands pat in next week’s meeting

China’s MLF rate unchanged after September’s cut; Tight funding conditions in banks open window for RRR cut

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, October

In one line: Chineses banks lower LPR to preserve NIM amid falling mortgage rates for existing borrowers.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, October

In one line: Early Korean exports slow, dragged down by weaker petroleum products and mobile handsets shipments.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 October 2024

Chinese banks lower LPR to preserve NIM amid falling mortgage rates for existing borrowers

Early Korean exports slow, dragged down by weaker petroleum products and mobile handsets shipments.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, September

In one line: Japan’s core inflation remains strong; the BoJ is unmoved by CPI fall driven by transitory factors.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 October 2024

In one line: Japan's Exports Fall Unexpectedly in September on Weaker Asian Shipments

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, September

In one line: Japan's Exports Fall Unexpectedly in September on Weaker Asian Shipments

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, October

Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.

Samuel TombsUS

7 November 2024 US Monitor Mr. Trump's win slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year

  • Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
  • ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
  • Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.

Samuel TombsUS

7 November 2024 LatAm Monitor Hit by Mr. Trump's victory; but central banks will help to ease the pain

  • Brazilian Real — Uncertainty amid elevated risk
  • Mexican Peso — Risks increase after Mr. Trump’s win
  • Colombian Peso — Much noise for a vulnerable currency

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnamese export growth hits a ceiling; Trump a real risk for 2025

  • Export growth in Vietnam fell further in October; this will persist, with momentum and orders fading.
  • Mr. Trump's proposed tariffs could be a ‘win’ for Vietnam, if it isn’t targeted with specific measures…
  • …His own corporate interests locally might mitigate the risks, but the VND will stay in the spotlight.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A Trump presidency is inflationary, also for the Eurozone

  • A Trump presidency is more of an inflation threat to the EZ economy than a growth threat.
  • We’re sticking with our call for the ECB to ease by less than markets expect next year.
  • Will EZ export orders jump in the final stretch of Q4 as foreign firms scramble to beat potential tariffs?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 November 2024 UK Monitor US election result supports more gradual rate cuts

  • Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
  • The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
  • We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2024

Inventories spike keeps Indonesian GDP growth from slowing more sharply in Q3
Inflation in the Philippines should stabilise near the lower end of the BSP’s range

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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