Little to suggest manufacturing is turning a corner.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY NO LONGER WARRANTED...
- ...EASING MUST BE RAPID TO STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Heating housing market concerns continue to haunt the CBC.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Heating housing market concerns continue to haunt the CBC.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Pushed down by a reversal in the primary income balance.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Falling trade balance hides pick-up in Malaysian export momentum
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A pre-emptive 25bp hike in response to persistent inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: In one line: A pre-emptive 25bp hike in response to persistent inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s COPOM raised the Selic rate to 10.75% amid rising inflation risks and economic resilience.
- The market expects further rate hikes, but we see rates on hold as economic activity is faltering.
- Argentina’s GDP continued to fall in Q2 due to Mr. Milei’s reform efforts to put the economy on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Ignore Malaysia’s smaller trade surplus in August, as the economy ramps up intermediate imports...
- ...The recovery in electronics exports continues to gather steam, powering manufacturing growth.
- The CBC sounds increasingly desperate in trying to rein in housing prices; an uphill task, in our view.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
- …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
- The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC kept Bank Rate on hold, as expected, but the 8-to-1 vote was less dovish than expected.
- The MPC signalled a gradual rate-cutting cycle, which suggests to us one cut per quarter.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in November and again in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices drop in July but should rebound as interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Services inflation rebounds close to the MPC’s forecast, keeping it on track to hold rates tomorrow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Single-family activity unlikely to recover much further.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Q3 carry-over looks o.k., but survey data remains depressed.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services inflation revised down marginally; headline to fall further in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
