Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid month for exports, but downside risks linger.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
- The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
- The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian export growth rose to a 19-month high in August, but this leap faces major downside risks.
- Singapore’s exports are still benefiting from the continued recovery in electronics demand.
- RBI Governor Das sounds less adamant that rate cuts require 4% long-run CPI; all eyes on October.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed…
- ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts.
- A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumer confidence has provided a reliable signal of consumer spending for 50 years.
- Confidence points to consumption strengthening and unemployment falling.
- Consumers’ saving intentions are high but they provide little useful signal about actual saving.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ trade pulled lower by imports in July; hourly labour cost growth remained elevated in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BCRP cut rates to 5.25%, maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation stabilisation and global risks.
- Real interest rates remain restrictive, despite easing, as inflation expectations align with the target.
- The narrowing rate differential with the Fed poses currency risk, but pressures are likely temporary.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations.
- We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation.
- EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Domestic demand fades in August, with fiscal policy slow to gain traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Government bond surge props up broad credit growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
