Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MIXED RECOVERY FOR LATAM ECONOMIES
- …AMID TEMPORARY INFLATION PRESSURES AND EXTERNAL THREATS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Probably not the start of a strong recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico saw strong growth in Q3, driven by agriculture and services, yet challenges lie ahead.
- Political uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election poses a risk to Mexico’s economy.
- Key sectors are showing resilience, but external factors could hit future growth and capex decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoJ left the policy rate on hold yesterday, at 0.25%, as expected given the recent election.
- Governor Ueda was deliberately vague about signalling the timing of the next rate hike.
- China’s October official PMI shows fiscal stimulus gaining traction, led by large enterprises.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December.
- Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too.
- The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but nothing to write home about ex-Olympic boost.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
