Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The uptick in the core CPI in August largely was due to the reversal of erratic price falls in prior months.
- We expect smaller increases in primary rent, falling services inflation and flat goods prices through Q4.
- The CPI data tentatively imply a 0.22% core PCE, but will hone our forecast after today’s PPI data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico — Headwinds amid reform uncertainty
- Colombia — Signs of recovery despite many headwinds
- Peru — Resilient despite global noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
- …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
- We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A second consecutive month of unchanged GDP gives little reason for worry.
- GDP was depressed by erratic sectors; they will rebound, and surveys point to robust growth.
- So, the MPC will still wait until November to cut interest rates again despite the downside GDP surprise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Punishingly high borrowing costs continuing to weigh on hiring and capex plans.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves climb in August amid weakening dollar and falling treasury yields
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Subdued pressures in August, but rising expectations cloud the near-term outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Encouraging wage slowdown keeps the MPC on track to cut rates again in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Dovish, but upside risks loom in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Indonesian retail sales growth remains skin-deep
A reassuring start to the third quarter for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Weak job gains require rapid easing, but the Fed isn’t sensing the urgency
- EUROZONE - All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday
- UK - More short-term borrowing, only partially offset by tax hikes
- CHINA+ - Insipid core consumer inflation confirms sorry demand picture
- EM ASIA - BNM likely to enjoy a ‘Goldilocks’ moment, with a pause until 2025
- LATAM - Inflation moderates in Mexico, but political uncertainty looms large
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the August core CPI, driven by rebounds in hospital charges and airline fares.
- Underlying core services inflation probably continued to decline, while goods prices likely rose weakly.
- The rebounding CPI components don’t feed into the core PCE, but the Fed still looks set to ease by 25bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
