Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Seasonal adjustment has evolved too slowly to offset greater clustering of annual price rises in January.
- Underlying services inflation continues to fall; leading indicators point to further progress.
- Surges in CPI auto insurance and hospital services prices will not feed through to the core PCE deflator.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — A solid start to the year as sentiment improves
- Mexico — A solid rebound, but threats remain
- Colombia — Economic tailwinds offset political noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Sales growth in Indonesia rebounded in December, as consumers brought forward some spending…
- …Ahead of what was ultimately a narrow VAT rate hike; expect an immediate correction in January.
- Overall, headline growth remains historically tepid, and leading indicators are still uninspiring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s consumer goods trade-in scheme drove RMB300B in retail sales, or 0.2% of GDP, last year.
- The expanded scheme is likely to drive 0.7% of GDP this year, thanks to greater fiscal support.
- The industrial equipment upgrade programme should support 0.8% of GDP, unchanged from last year.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Only around 40% of EU Resilience & Recovery Facility cash has been disbursed to member states.
- Bureaucracy, rising costs and supply-chain issues are holding back the pace of fund absorption.
- A lot needs to be done by August 2026 to mobilise remaining funds; not everyone will get there.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- December’s payrolls fall should be revised up, and we look for a 20K month-to-month drop in January.
- The official unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in December, and is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in December, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Headline retail sales were probably held back by a plunge in auto sales linked to supply-bottlenecks...
- ...but underlying sales likely were strong again, as tariff threats encouraged pre-emptive purchases.
- Mr. Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was unremarkable, but watch for post-CPI comments today.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s inflation dipped slightly in January, but the near-term outlook remains bleak…
- …But pressures will ease in H2 as weakening domestic and external demand weigh on inflation.
- A very, very ugly outlook for Mexico’s industrial sector under Trump 2.0; it could be avoided though.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bunds have hovered close to fair value since the beginning of the year, according to our models.
- US Treasuries and Schatz point to upside risks to Bund yields, but fundamentals pull the other way.
- Near-term risks to Bund yields are tilted to the downside, before bear-steepening in H2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Stronger ONS population forecasts should boost potential output growth by 0.1pp per year.
- The OBR will likely cut productivity growth forecasts, leaving potential growth unchanged.
- We estimate the Chancellor has about £5B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Decent, but also behind the Trump-curve.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- Colombia’s disinflation has paused, complicating BanRep’s efforts to support activity.
- Increased political noise, elevated fiscal strain and external uncertainty are challenges for policymakers.
- Chile’s electricity-tariff hike sparks an inflation surge, dimming hopes for further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwanese export growth fell more than expected in January; blame the Lunar New Year noise…
- …Yet, demand from China remains weak, with exports there falling in three of the past four months.
- Headline inflation rose too, but this—again—seems due mainly to residual Lunar New Year effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s January headline consumer inflation jumped, due to holiday spending and timing effects.
- The holiday bump in inflation is likely to subside after Lunar New Year, with demand still soft.
- Producer prices continued to fall in January, amid signs of industrial excess supply and falling costs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP…
- …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex.
- The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rebounding airfares, and private-school fee hikes, will drive up CPI inflation to 2.8% in January.
- CPI services inflation should surge to 5.2% in January, matching the MPC’s updated forecasts.
- Risks lie to the upside of our forecast for CPI inflation to reach 3.4% in April and 3.5% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market improved marginally in January but remains hobbled according to the REC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
