China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
China's Caixin services PMI rises at year-end, despite sagging export orders and sentiment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The December PMI reports Korean manufacturers at their most pessimistic since June 2020.
- Export growth showed a markedly slower trend in Q4, with broad weakness across regional markets.
- The government forecasts export growth to plunge to 1.5% in 2025, from 8.2% in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI shows slowing growth
Korean manufacturing sentiment takes a nosedive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese manufacturing growth ebbs at year-end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s December official PMIs were a mixed bag with the manufacturing gauge losing ground slightly.
- The broad-based rise in the services PMI is encouraging; but it's only one-month's reading.
- The uptick in the construction PMI was likely mainly due to short-term factors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth is steady
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Recent USDCNY weakness is largely a reflection of broad dollar strength…
- …But also falling Chinese government-bond yields, after an effective deposit-rate cut.
- November’s Caixin services PMI points to resilient activity but deflation pressure.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s real household spending fell further in October as people tighten their purse strings.
- Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in November, held back by willingness to buy durable goods.
- The BoJ will probably hike rates this month, as long as market risks from Korean politics are contained.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI slows a notch
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both of China’s manufacturing PMIs in November point to a near-term uptick in activity.
- But their price indices are a mixed bag, and China probably hasn’t escaped deflation just yet.
- The construction PMI disappointed, due to the continued drag from housing construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PMI buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China Caixin and Korean manufacturing PMIs buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo headline inflation leapt in November, mainly on the back of higher energy and fresh food inflation.
- Core inflation—excluding energy and fresh food—and services inflation only inched up.
- The BoJ is likely feeling boxed in by rising market bets on a December rate hike, implying 60% probability.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK makes surprise rate cut to bolster Korean growth, amid looming trade protectionism risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
BoK makes surprise rate cut to bolster Korean growth, amid looming trade protectionism risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK surprised the market yesterday by cutting the base rate by 25bp to 3.00%.
- Growth risks figured prominently, notably related to US protectionism and China’s competitiveness.
- The BoK should keep easing, as long as USDKRW weakens roughly in line with other major currencies.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's industrial profits extend their decline, hit by producer price deflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial profits extended their decline in October, though equipment-maker figures improved.
- Sinking property-construction demand and an epic coal-price correction are the key drags.
- Look out for supply-side reforms to rectify excess capacity at the Central Economic Work Conference.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
