China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
Caixin services PMI points to activity uptick
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both of China’s October PMIs suggest that fiscal stimulus is star ting to take effect.
- The output price indices also rose, though it’s too early to pop a cork over China’s deflation fight.
- The PBoC’s new liquidity tool provides more flexibility in managing long-term funding.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left the policy rate on hold yesterday, at 0.25%, as expected given the recent election.
- Governor Ueda was deliberately vague about signalling the timing of the next rate hike.
- China’s October official PMI shows fiscal stimulus gaining traction, led by large enterprises.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to hold rates steady until January, given growth trends and Friday’s inflation data...
- ...But political and currency risks loom large; a sharp JPY depreciation would force an earlier move.
- China’s NPC will meet on November 4-to-8 and is likely to approve targeted additional fiscal stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Flash manufacturing PMI shows weakening demand across the board
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's flash composite PMI emits warning signal
Flash manufacturing PMI reports weakening demand across the board
Services sector activity cools dramatically
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s October flash PMIs point to a rocky start to Q4, with a broad fading of activity.
- Manufacturers were slammed by sinking export orders, while services activity slowed sharply.
- The BoJ should stay put this month, and likely in December; but the weak yen raises rate-hike risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese banks cut both LPRs by 25bp yesterday, in a sign of support for sentiment and demand.
- But the housing minister’s new demand-support policy fell well short of similar measures in 2015.
- The overall residential market has a long way to go, though tier-one markets are showing signs of life.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China picked up in Q3, but GDP growth will still need to double q/q in Q4 to get close to full-year target
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q3 GDP growth rose from Q2 but still needs to double in Q4 to get close to the full-year target.
- Fiscal stimulus policies, via government investment and auto trade-ins, spurred activity in September.
- Additional support is needed for China to restore inflation in the still-falling GDP deflator in Q3.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's new property market policies will provide only a modest demand lift
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s September credit data point to a continued deterioration in private-sector borrowing demand.
- Government bond issuance remains robust, but the key is rapid use of the funds for investment.
- A modest fall in fiscal deposits suggests the policy growth pivot is gaining traction, albeit slowly.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Strong government bond issuance cushions overall credit growth, but only modest signs that existing fiscal stimulus is gaining traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s finance minister on Saturday announced the intention to provide further support, but no detail…
- ...That’s to be expected, given only the legislature can approve additional fiscal support measures.
- Further targeted support is likely for Q4, but a mega-package to address the root ills will take longer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth slows, as bonuses effect fades
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s stock market rally, against a backdrop of poor economic fundamentals, resembles 2015…
- …when the stock market went through a boom/bust cycle long before structural reforms got under way.
- History suggests China can take a while to find a good policy solution to difficult structural problems.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Falling oil prices pulled down Korea’s headline inflation in September; geopolitical risks loom.
- The September manufacturing PMI declined sharply, pointing to softening demand and output.
- The inflation and PMI data are likely to lead to a BoK rate cut this month, despite mounting debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
