China+ Datanote: Labour Cash Earnings, Japan, April

In one line:  Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

6 June 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's regular pay growth hits 30- year high, thanks to Shunt wage rises

• Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the Shuntō wage settlements started filtering through.
• That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
• Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea’s export recovery continues, led by strong ICT demand and lumpy ship exports

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, May

In one line: China's NBS PMIs surprised to the downside

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 May 2024: China's NBS PMIs surprised to the downside

Manufacturing activities flounder in May on weakening domestic and external demand

Non-manufacturing PMI stalls as construction activity slow sharply

Japan’s Tokyo inflation accelerates on the back of expiring energy subsidies

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 May 2024: April's industrial profits show slower recovery

April's industrial profits show slower recovery due to protracted reflation cycle

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 June 2024 China+ Monitor US tariffs on "new trio" to have limited impact on Chinese exports

• The US has proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, which will have limited impact, in our view.
• Lithium batteries likely will be most affected, among other items targeted, with the US more exposed to it.
• China’s manufacturing activity shrank unexpectedly in May, suggesting more stimulus might be needed.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

30 May 2024 China+ Monitor Manufacturing profits in rude health as overall profits stall

• China’s industrial profit growth was unchanged in April; the recovery is weaker than previously thought.
• A slowing reflation cycle is to blame, but also excess capacity and rising input costs.
• Manufacturing profits remain solid, but expect more policy support for the economic recovery.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, May

In one line: The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan’s manufacturing activity expands for the first time in a year, largely driven by improvements in output and new orders.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 May 2024: The BoK stays put in May, citing upside risks to inflation

The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation

Japan’s manufacturing activity expands for the first time in a year, largely driven by improvements in output and new orders.

Services activity continues to grow at solid pace in May 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

24 May 2024 China+ Monitor BoK signals delay to rate cuts on rising inflation risks

• The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
• The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk . 
• Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports hit hard by May’s fewer working days but underlying momentum was improving on a WDA basis.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 May 2024: Korea's 20-day exports hit hard by fewer working days

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports hit hard by May’s fewer working days but underlying momentum was improving on a WDA basis.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 May 2024 China+ Monitor Korea's export recovery continues, when adjusted for working days

• Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
• The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
• We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 May 2024: China's banks held LPR unchanged

China's banks held LPR steady in May; More funding is need to prop up the real estate sector

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, May

China's banks held LPR steady in May; More funding is need to prop up the real estate sector

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 May 2024: Japan's Q1 GDP shrinks more than expected as domestic demand deteriorates

In one line: Japan's Q1 GDP shrinks more than expected as domestic demand deteriorates

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

17 May 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's Q1 GDP dragged down by weaker domestic demand

• Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
• Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
• The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+