- China’s Central Economic Work Conference is ‘all hat and no cattle’; consumption is the sole priority in 2025.
- The authorities seem to have run out of new ideas to boost the economy in the face of external uncertainty.
- In 2025, expect monetary policy easing, the budget deficit ceiling to be raised and more structural reforms.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China headline consumer inflation is on the brink of deflation, but core inflation offers a ray of hope.
- Producer price deflation is narrowing on stimulus related construction material production.
- China needs to unleash more demand-side policies to see a sustained recovery.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Politburo signalled a change in monetary policy stance to “moderately loose” from “prudent”.
- Further mentions of a consumption boost still don’t mean large-scale We stern-style handouts are likely.
- The Politburo’s mindset on structural issues hasn’t changed; we expect a December RRR cut .
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s non-manufacturing growth stalls in November as construction weighs on activity.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s stimulus continues to give manufacturing activity a modest lift amid looming geopolitical uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s WDA exports rebound in November, but looming protectionist risks loom over growth.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s Q3 GDP is a mixed bag, with private consumption surprising on the upside but business investment falling.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's credit growth slows to historic lows amid muted household and business loan demand
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's deflation risks persist in October, but there is a silver lining
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s headline producer deflation masks stimulus-driven price upticks in construction materials
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s CPI near deflation weighed down by volatile items; uptick in services inflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s Q3 current account surplus widens; inward FDI remains negative for second consecutive quarter
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: One month’s data can be misleading; China's quarterly export growth has, in fact, decelerated.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves drop in October amid dollar strength and outflow pressures.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s wage growth holds steady, supporting case for BoJ hike in early 2025; Our revised forecasts post-Trump victory show weaker growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea’s headline export growth eased in November, but work-day-adjusted data showed a bounce-back.
- The rebound was driven by stronger ASEAN shipments; overall growth momentum is slowing.
- We expect the BoK to ease by 75bp in 2025 to counteract the increasingly uncertain export outlook.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s consumer inflation is dragged down by volatile food and energy prices, but core prices are improving.
- Producer deflation steepened, masking construction-material price rises, likely due to stimulus demand.
- Mr. Trump’s US election victory will depress Chinese growth and likely keep inflation subdued for longer.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China credit demand growth hit a record low in October, with TSF growth at its weakest since 2003.
- Loans to the real economy fell further due to slowing corporate and household borrowing.
- The economic support measures so far have given China’s credit demand limited uplift.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea’s export momentum wanes in October amid despite semiconductor boost
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s Caixin manufacturing PMi rebounds as stimulus starts to take effect
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
