- - CHINA’S WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND JUSTIFIES MORE STIMULUS
- - JAPAN’S Q2 GDP EVIDENCES A WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL
- - BOK TO CUT IN OCT AS BASE CASE; NOV CUT A POSSIBILITY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China's July retail sales bounce is misleading; it is simply a recovery from June's unexpected fall.
- Consumption has been beset by socioeconomic factors: jobs, income, policies, social norms.
- Demand-side policies will remain targeted; Western- style handouts to consumers are unlikely.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s commercial banks left loan prime rates unchanged in August as their NIM hit a record low.
- The PBoC is in no rush to lower policy rates; fiscal policy is bearing the burden of driving the recovery.
- Q2 inward direct investment was negative again; 2024 is set for the largest net outflows since the 2000s.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s loan prime rates unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s LPRs unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Slowing industrial production highlights China’s slumping property sector and rising trade frictions
China’s retail sales rebound in July, but weak consumer confidence and property woes weigh on growth
Fixed investment falters amid infrastructure slowdown and weak private investment
China’s property sales activity and price growth remain weak
PBoC shifts to new monetary framework: MLF operations to be carried out on 25th of every month
Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s TSF data suggest weak demand for loans in the real economy
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s Q2 GDP surprised to the upside; economic recovery is on a firmer footing than expected.
- Consumption ended four consecutive quarterly falls in Q2 on the back of first real wage gains since 2022.
- The BoJ is delighted to see more evidence of wage-price spiral; it provided the basis for July’s hike.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- July activity data was unspectacular, with slowing growth in FAI and production and weak retail sales.
- China's fixed investment growth fell unexpectedly, with infrastructure investment the main drag.
- FAI growth would have been weaker without the contribution from equipment replacement plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China's total social financing growth ticked up in July, but credit demand remained very weak.
- Net new loans fell for first time in 19 years, with notable weakness in household and business lending.
- The PBoC are trying hard to raise long-term bond yields, but we will wait to see if that can be sustained.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's July exports disappoint market expectations
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves rise on positive currency and asset valuation effects
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's July export growth falls short of expectations amid slowing momentum
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s export rebound disappoints markets, likely due to deeper-than-expected fall in car shipments to the US
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s manufacturing activity continues to grow in July, but at a slower pace
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Caixin PMI shows shrinking manufacturing activity for the first time in 9 months on extreme weather
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Adverse weather shrinks China’s manufacturing activity; Korea’s WDA export growth slowdown likely temporary
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
