China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
In one line: treading sideways
In one line: Reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
Japan's flash PMIs find reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
- Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
- Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.
China's November activity data show goods consumption softening and fixed asset investment worsening
In one line: still looking for signs of private sector credit demand
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference last week was a damp squib...
- ...Unsurprisingly, given the relative calm compared with last year ’s impending tariff drama.
- Policymakers are signalling confidence, meaning they will stick to broad settings for 2026, with a few tweaks..
In one line:signalling confidence, no major course shift
- China’s December Politburo meeting yesterday signalled greater confidence in the near-term outlook...
- ...allowing renewed focus on long-term structural issues as well as near-term demand support.
- Exports rose 5.9% year-over-year in November, thanks to demand from non-US markets.
Politburo signals urgency to stabilise domestic demand
Chinese exports resume solid growth to non-US markets
Japanese wages lifted by bonuses
- China’s manufacturing PMIs indicate domestic demand remains lacklustre.
- A rebound in builders’ sentiment offers hope that the policy-bank funding support will gain purchase.
- China is likely to opt for targeted support, like expanded consumer subsidies at this month’s Politburo meeting
RatingDog PMI stung by waning domestic demand, despite buoyant overseas orders
Korean manufacturing index treading water
Tokyo inflation slows slightly, with hints of steady wage inflation going into 2026
- Tokyo inflation edged down to 2.7% year-over-year in November, but the BoJ will focus more on the markets.
- Government claims that total borrowing this year will less than last year have provided reassurance for now.
- The 2026 wage outlook looks reasonably promising, despite the earlier profit hit to automakers from tariffs.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO FOCUS ON EBBING DOMESTIC ACTIVITY
- - BOJ DECEMBER RATE HIKE BACK ON THE TABLE
- - KOREA’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REBOUND
- China’s new promotion scheme to raise consumption issued yesterday is old wine in new wineskins.
- The scheme focuses on boosting supply, without addressing the root causes of dull consumer demand.
- Bright spots amid the gloom include rising spending on consumer services, like sports and tourism.
In one line: exports hold up ahead of row with China
- China’s residential property market is weakening again, in the absence of robust new policy support.
- Broad inventory needs another 18 months to bottom out, but even that depends on sentiment stabilising.
- A modest rise in land sales this year, albeit from a very low base, is a flickering ray of light.
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank, hit by weaker net exports, a slower inventory rise and falling residential investment.
- The government aims to secure a larger supplementary budget than in 2024, leading to bond-market worries.
- The diplomatic spat with China over Taiwan could put a 0.3pp dent in GDP growth if Chinese tourism stops.
