China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
- ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
- It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
- But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
- …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, likely wary of currency pressure.
- Social financing growth slowed in March, due to soft domestic demand and lower bond issuance.
- Government-bond issuance is likely to pick up in Q2, the key plank of short-term growth support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
- A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
- Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
- A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
- But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
- Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
- But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
- The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
- A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
- ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
- Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
