China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Global Duncan Wrigley
- China’s Q3 GDP growth rose from Q2 but still needs to double in Q4 to get close to the full-year target.
- Fiscal stimulus policies, via government investment and auto trade-ins, spurred activity in September.
- Additional support is needed for China to restore inflation in the still-falling GDP deflator in Q3.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s finance minister on Saturday announced the intention to provide further support, but no detail…
- ...That’s to be expected, given only the legislature can approve additional fiscal support measures.
- Further targeted support is likely for Q4, but a mega-package to address the root ills will take longer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s stock market rally, against a backdrop of poor economic fundamentals, resembles 2015…
- …when the stock market went through a boom/bust cycle long before structural reforms got under way.
- History suggests China can take a while to find a good policy solution to difficult structural problems.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Thursday’s Politburo meeting confirmed the policy shift to growth support away from debt control.
- Government investment should pick up now local officials have clearer policy directives.
- But policymakers’ more supportive stance for property isn’t matched by new policy ideas.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ stood pat last week , placing greater emphasis on the price impact of currency moves.
- Governor Ueda’s dovish tone on Friday suggests an October rate hike is off the table.
- Mr. Ueda recognises that inflation risks have receded, despite the rise in August national inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Recent BoJ policymaker statements signal intent to keep raising rates if warranted by inflation.
- The carry trade appears to have largely unwound, but lower oil prices could slow the pace of rate hikes.
- Revised Q2 GDP growth was partly bolstered by short-term factors; Q3 growth is likely to slow.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A PBoC official on Thursday hinted that an RRR cut is imminent...
- ...even though the bond market’s performance in August indicates ample liquidity.
- A likely cut to existing-mortgage rates won’t move the needle on consumption.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s controversial ‘housing pension’ scheme rollout highlights the cost of an aging housing stock.
- Homeowners worry they will have to foot more of the bill for maintaining housing; another reason to save.
- Q2 credit data suggest the game plan to hit “about 5%” GDP growth this year is running into obstacles.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s headline consumer inflation rose in July, but this was due to weather-related food inflation.
- Domestic demand still looks sluggish, based on core consumer inflation.
- A jump in auto trade-in subsidy applications, despite overall falling sales, offers a ray of hope for H2.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s new urbanisation action plan, announced last week, has largely flown under the radar...
- ...But, if properly implemented, it should go a long way to rebalancing China’s economy...
- ...By unleashing the full domestic demand potential embedded in the unfinished urbanisation project.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ will probably placate currency investors by cutting back bond-buying on Wednesday...
- ...But will likely stay put on the policy rate, in order to prop up growth and foster demand-pull inflation.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged down in July, though core inflation excluding fresh food inched up.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The summary document from China’s Third Plenum hints at further short-term growth support.
- The reform strategy prioritizes manufacturing and high-tech development.
- But bold reforms to fill the demand hole left by the tanking property sector seem unlikely.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation rose in May, due to the phasing out of household energy subsidies.
- Cost-push inflation is set to return in H2, reflecting the lagged impact of the weak JPY.
- But the June flash PMIs point to flagging domestic economic activity; what a headache for the BoJ!
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left its policy rate targets unchanged and committed to paring back bond purchases.
- Details of tapering will be revealed in July after consulting the market; the amount is likely “significant”.
- We still expect only one rate hike this year, as consumption will likely take longer to recover.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports picked up the pace a notch in May, mainly thanks to stronger trade with ASEAN.
- High-tech exports, such as cars and electronics, are outperforming fading trade in traditional goods.
- A modest recovery in global demand should help China’s growth this year, despite protectionist risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s new property-market measures aim to stabilise the sector, rather than return to the boom times.
- The focus on housing-inventory reduction is the right direction, but the funding so far is too small.
- First-tier cities will probably bottom out first, but overall a drawn-out rebound is still on the cards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s consumer inflation continued to slow in April, with a notable cooling in food inflation.
- The phased removal of energy subsidies, then higher import costs, will lift inflation in the rest of the year.
- Japan is still far from seeing sustained inflation based on consumption growth; no rate hike until Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s April retail sales were hit by falling auto sales; the trade -in incentives should provide support.
- Industrial output regained its vim in April, led by high-tech manufacturing.
- Renewed government-bond issuance should restore infrastructure investment growth, after the April dip.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial output likely picked up steam in April, thanks to a modest export rise.
- Falling auto sales probably hit overall retail sales growth, with buyers waiting for further price cuts.
- Government bond issuance should be stepped up from May, heeding clear top-down policy direction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ held firm on its policy rate on Friday, defying market pressure on the JPY.
- Governor Ueda declined to adopt a more hawkish tone on the rate path, keeping the focus on inflation.
- April national inflation won’t slow as much as Tokyo inflation, hit by the start of free local schooling.
Duncan WrigleyChina+