China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
China's headline consumer inflation buoyed by holiday travel and spending; underlying trend still weak for both consumer and producer prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s foreign reserves rose in January, likely on the back of export front loading ahead of tariff risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ officials continue to indicate their readiness to keep raising rates, despite trade tension worries.
- January Tokyo consumer inflation jumped to the highest since April 2023, because of food inflation.
- Real consumption spending also rose in January, but mainly due to spending on necessities.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin services activity slows, but sentiment improves
Japanese wages enjoy year-end bonus boost
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumption activity was strong over the Lunar New Year holiday period...
- ...But it is likely to slow again afterwards, repeating the pattern established since the reopening.
- January’s Caixin services PMI activity slowed a tad before the holiday, but expectations improved.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
- A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In much better shape than the headline suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
- Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
- The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s real exports jumped in December, reflecting front-loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes.
- The January flash manufacturing PMIs fell, with new export orders remaining weak.
- Business expectations are still relatively strong though, despite worries about trade risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Vanke’s latest travails show persistent developer debt issues, despite slightly better property-market data.
- Residential area sold and developer funding rose in December but are still at low levels.
- China’s tier-one cities are likely to lead the upturn; with many cities lumbered with large housing supply,
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ raised the policy rate on Friday; Governor Ueda hinted at further rate hikes at a measured pace.
- The Bank is optimistic about continued steady wage inflation this year, given signs of labour shortages.
- It lifted its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025, due to higher import costs and rice inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's export growth rebounds m/m SA, thanks to improved shipments to the EU and US
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
