China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
Trade-in subsidies lift retail sales of autos and consumer goods
Residential sales stabilise
Manufacturing output making steady progress
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s October activity data show household spending ticking up, on goods and property.
- Ignore the dip in headline industrial output; manufacturing production is still robust.
- The full-year growth target is in reach, thanks to rising service sector activity; but 2025 is another matter.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s earlier stimulus efforts should give a modest lift to October’s activity data, due out tomorrow.
- But this is a fragile rise, dependent on further policy support, just as external risks are mounting.
- December’s Central Economic Work Conference should bring more piecemeal support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's RMB10T debt-swap plan isn't the last word in addressing its malaise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s National People’s Congress approved only a debt-swap plan on Friday, no direct stimulus.
- But the Finance Minister indicated that more measure s, for property and banks, are coming.
- China’s October foreign reserves plunged, in part probably due to bond-market outflows.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Mr. Trump’s win likely means China’s NPC will today approve only modest stimulus to boost confidence.
- But a bigger multi-year package is likely on the way, with more leeway to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
- The BoJ is likely to favour growth with a slower pace of rate hikes but be alert to the risk of JPY weakness.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s October Caixin services PMI points to stronger activity in the month.
- Services firms’ sentiment is reviving, as policy support lifts consumption and some property sales.
- But the longevity of this burgeoning rebound hinges on further policy support, with news likely on Friday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin services PMI points to activity uptick
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both of China’s October PMIs suggest that fiscal stimulus is star ting to take effect.
- The output price indices also rose, though it’s too early to pop a cork over China’s deflation fight.
- The PBoC’s new liquidity tool provides more flexibility in managing long-term funding.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China’s existing stimulus produces initial results, as state sector heeds strong policy signals
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's stimulus lifts manufacturing PMI
BoJ stays pat and Governor Ueda keeps options open
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left the policy rate on hold yesterday, at 0.25%, as expected given the recent election.
- Governor Ueda was deliberately vague about signalling the timing of the next rate hike.
- China’s October official PMI shows fiscal stimulus gaining traction, led by large enterprises.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to hold rates steady until January, given growth trends and Friday’s inflation data...
- ...But political and currency risks loom large; a sharp JPY depreciation would force an earlier move.
- China’s NPC will meet on November 4-to-8 and is likely to approve targeted additional fiscal stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Flash manufacturing PMI shows weakening demand across the board
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's flash composite PMI emits warning signal
Flash manufacturing PMI reports weakening demand across the board
Services sector activity cools dramatically
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s October flash PMIs point to a rocky start to Q4, with a broad fading of activity.
- Manufacturers were slammed by sinking export orders, while services activity slowed sharply.
- The BoJ should stay put this month, and likely in December; but the weak yen raises rate-hike risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chinese banks cut both LPRs by 25bp yesterday, in a sign of support for sentiment and demand.
- But the housing minister’s new demand-support policy fell well short of similar measures in 2015.
- The overall residential market has a long way to go, though tier-one markets are showing signs of life.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China picked up in Q3, but GDP growth will still need to double q/q in Q4 to get close to full-year target
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q3 GDP growth rose from Q2 but still needs to double in Q4 to get close to the full-year target.
- Fiscal stimulus policies, via government investment and auto trade-ins, spurred activity in September.
- Additional support is needed for China to restore inflation in the still-falling GDP deflator in Q3.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
