China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
China picked up in Q3, but GDP growth will still need to double q/q in Q4 to get close to full-year target
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's new property market policies will provide only a modest demand lift
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s September credit data point to a continued deterioration in private-sector borrowing demand.
- Government bond issuance remains robust, but the key is rapid use of the funds for investment.
- A modest fall in fiscal deposits suggests the policy growth pivot is gaining traction, albeit slowly.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Strong government bond issuance cushions overall credit growth, but only modest signs that existing fiscal stimulus is gaining traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s finance minister on Saturday announced the intention to provide further support, but no detail…
- ...That’s to be expected, given only the legislature can approve additional fiscal support measures.
- Further targeted support is likely for Q4, but a mega-package to address the root ills will take longer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth slows, as bonuses effect fades
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s stock market rally, against a backdrop of poor economic fundamentals, resembles 2015…
- …when the stock market went through a boom/bust cycle long before structural reforms got under way.
- History suggests China can take a while to find a good policy solution to difficult structural problems.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Falling oil prices pulled down Korea’s headline inflation in September; geopolitical risks loom.
- The September manufacturing PMI declined sharply, pointing to softening demand and output.
- The inflation and PMI data are likely to lead to a BoK rate cut this month, despite mounting debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Plunge in Korean manufacturing PMI raises the likelihood of earlier BoK cut
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese manufacturers' sentiment is steady
Korean underlying export growth remains strong
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean working-day-adjusted export growth remained robust in September, slowing only a little.
- Semiconductor shipments drove over 60% of the headline export growth.
- The BoK is likely to cut the policy rate this month, despite worries over rising household-debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Thursday’s Politburo meeting confirmed the policy shift to growth support away from debt control.
- Government investment should pick up now local officials have clearer policy directives.
- But policymakers’ more supportive stance for property isn’t matched by new policy ideas.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Politburo confirms top-level priority on achieving growth target, but only hints at further fiscal support
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
- The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
- The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC's policy support should stoke short-term market sentiment and growth, but won't solve China's structural woes
Japan's flash PMIs show mixed performance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
14 day reverse repo rate cut isn't additional stimulus, but completion of July's rate cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ stood pat last week , placing greater emphasis on the price impact of currency moves.
- Governor Ueda’s dovish tone on Friday suggests an October rate hike is off the table.
- Mr. Ueda recognises that inflation risks have receded, despite the rise in August national inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
