China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
- China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
- A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In much better shape than the headline suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
- Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
- The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s real exports jumped in December, reflecting front-loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes.
- The January flash manufacturing PMIs fell, with new export orders remaining weak.
- Business expectations are still relatively strong though, despite worries about trade risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Vanke’s latest travails show persistent developer debt issues, despite slightly better property-market data.
- Residential area sold and developer funding rose in December but are still at low levels.
- China’s tier-one cities are likely to lead the upturn; with many cities lumbered with large housing supply,
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ raised the policy rate on Friday; Governor Ueda hinted at further rate hikes at a measured pace.
- The Bank is optimistic about continued steady wage inflation this year, given signs of labour shortages.
- It lifted its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025, due to higher import costs and rice inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's export growth rebounds m/m SA, thanks to improved shipments to the EU and US
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's official GDP hits 2024 target thanks to Q4 stimulus sugar rush, but domestic demand is still lagging output growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC is stressing USDCNY support and holding rates steady, but we see this as tactical.
- Domestic demand is still lagging behind output growth, despite the Q4 GDP print.
- Currency depreciation will be part of the toolkit in response to likely aggressive US trade action.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q4 GDP growth surpassed market expectations, thanks to stimulus policies.
- But domestic demand remains weak overall, especially compared to vigorous output growth.
- China will need to step up fiscal policy support to nurse its recovery, as it faces export growth risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s total social financing ticked up in December thanks to greater government-bond issuance.
- Stronger M2 growth reflects the policy lift to asset-market activity and consumer goods sales.
- But the shocking long-term corporate loan figure casts doubt on funding needs for investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
