China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Daily Monitor Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
- China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
- We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s exports surprised to the upside, thanks to a surge in EU and BRICS shipments and car demand.
- Imports imploded, reflecting rapidly deteriorating domestic demand; more stimulus is needed.
- Foreign exchange reserves rose in August due to a higher valuation effect on currency and bond assets.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
- Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
- Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
- Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
- Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s commercial banks left loan prime rates unchanged in August as their NIM hit a record low.
- The PBoC is in no rush to lower policy rates; fiscal policy is bearing the burden of driving the recovery.
- Q2 inward direct investment was negative again; 2024 is set for the largest net outflows since the 2000s.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- July activity data was unspectacular, with slowing growth in FAI and production and weak retail sales.
- China's fixed investment growth fell unexpectedly, with infrastructure investment the main drag.
- FAI growth would have been weaker without the contribution from equipment replacement plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China's total social financing growth ticked up in July, but credit demand remained very weak.
- Net new loans fell for first time in 19 years, with notable weakness in household and business lending.
- The PBoC are trying hard to raise long-term bond yields, but we will wait to see if that can be sustained.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Weak Korean export rebound was disappointing; working-day adjusted growth actually eased sharply.
- Deeper dive in US shipment growth was the driver, coupled with a double-digit plunge in car exports.
- Firming KRW and easing cost burden give BoK more room to cut rates, but unlikely to hasten the timeline.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
- Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
- China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s industrial profit growth edged up in June, thanks to better upstream sector profits.
- But two-thirds of industries saw profit growth ease, echoing the weak domestic demand in Q2 GDP.
- More stimulus will be deployed to support growth and put profit’s recovery on a more sustainable path.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s property market is still in the doldrums; prices and transactions are falling at pace.
- The secondary market is suffering bigger price falls due to higher inventory levels and consumer choice.
- The impact of re-lending facilities will not be felt immediately due to implementation problems.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
- The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk .
- Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
- The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
- We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
