- China’s official PMIs unexpectedly fell in January; manufacturing activity dropped to a five-month low.
- The services PMI reversed December’s gain and fell back to the period-average prior to that month.
- Manufacturers and developers are optimistic about the outlook despite local and global headwinds.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S Q4 ACTIVITY BUMP IS LIKELY TO FADE
- - BOJ IS KEEN TO NORMALISE RATES
- - BOK IS LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoK delivered a ‘dovish hold’ yesterday due to FX-volatility worries, in line with our forecast.
- The MPB recognises the need to shore up the economy but wants to learn more of Trump’s plans.
- The Bank is likely to resume rate cuts in February, as downside risks to domestic growth are rising.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's 2024 export value surpasses Covid peak, trade surplus hits record high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases further, but overcapacity risks remain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s core inflation shows a silver lining; Headline CPI nears deflation on falling food prices.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves fell more than consensus in December, thanks to sizable valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s export growth rebounded in December, led by improvements in ASEAN and US shipments.
- China suffers from overcapacity in some industries, with export volume growing faster than value.
- Will President Trump follow through on his tariff threats on his first day, and how will China respond?
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI inched closer to deflation in December; fresh food and pork prices were the main drags.
- Core inflation improved for the third straight month, highlighting stabilising demand conditions.
- PPI reflation hinges on stimulus-related demand and how China addresses its overcapacity issue.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s currency is under pressure from expectations of more PBoC easing and a less dovish Fed.
- Foreign reserves fell sizeably in December, driven primarily by currency and bond valuation effects.
- Some of China’s policy firepower has been saved, to be deployed depending on future US trade policy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Despite upside surprises on headline numbers, Korean WDA exports weakened in December amid regional demand slowdown and political uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's industrial profits deteriorate amid insufficient demand and external uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s manufacturing growth stabilises at best; more stimulus needed for broader growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan CPI outturn signals upside risks to prices; BoJ’s summary of opinions highlights diverse December views
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Korea’s WDA 20-day exports remain steady ahead of Trump inauguration
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Sharp rise in Japan’s CPI highlights energy and fresh food costs, BoJ holds steady
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s commercial banks kept LPRs unchanged in December.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
BoJ holds rates in December; Eyes on Ueda for rate path clues
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s exports were a mixed bag in November; expect more headwinds in 2025.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
