China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor
- Both July manufacturing PMIs indicate declining activity, especially the dip in the Caixin PMI.
- Extreme weather is only partly to blame; domestic demand is weak, as the growth model is revamped.
- China will keep adjusting incremental stimulus until growth is back on track at the “about 5%” target.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ yesterday announced a policy rate hike, despite cutting its inflation forecast for this year.
- Governor Ueda said the Bank will continue to raise rates if growth and inflation match its expectations.
- The real motivation for the rate increase is probably to minimise the risk of a steep JPY reversal.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial profit growth edged up in June, thanks to better upstream sector profits.
- But two-thirds of industries saw profit growth ease, echoing the weak domestic demand in Q2 GDP.
- More stimulus will be deployed to support growth and put profit’s recovery on a more sustainable path.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The PBoC yesterday made an unscheduled 20bp MLF rate cut, following earlier policy rate cuts.
- Policymakers are clearly worried about the H2 outlook, after Q2 GDP growth halved versus Q1.
- Policymakers are likely to stress fiscal support to stabilise growth, but no mega-stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s July flash manufacturing index sank to the lowest in four months, hit by the auto safety scandal.
- Higher import prices, because of the weak JPY, are driving up business costs.
- The service sector returned to growth, enjoying a likely brief spending boost from a one-off tax rebate.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC yesterday took markets by surprise with a 10bp policy rate cut to support the economy.
- Policymakers are prioritising growth support after the disappointing Q2 GDP outturn.
- President Xi’s comments confirm the ‘advanced manufacturing first’ reform strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s residential sales are staging a modest and narrowly based revival, thanks to policy easing.
- But prices are still mostly falling, and the recovery is fragile given high housing inventories.
- A drawn-out and bumpy rebound is still the most likely scenario, gradually limiting the drag on growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s soft June credit data indicated weak demand for funding, except government bonds.
- Higher net long-term household loans probably reflect a revival in pre-owned property sales.
- Money growth continued to be buffeted by fund flows from corporate bank deposits into bond funds.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q2 sequential GDP growth was the lowest in two years, hit by fading domestic demand.
- Industrial output growth has been relatively steady, supported by export demand.
- A fiscal policy support top-up is increasingly likely, with monetary easing playing second fiddle.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports continued to recover in June, while imports fell, leading to a record trade surplus.
- Shipments to ASEAN were strong, and to the US also picked up; falling imports signal weak demand.
- Near-term exports will be helped by a favorable base; EV export uncertainty due to tariffs will linger.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK held fast on the policy rate yesterday but shifted the focus to rate cuts.
- Disinflation should continue in H2, despite the risks from higher import costs and the weak KRW.
- Chip exports will likely drive GDP growth enough for the BoK to delay its first rate cut until October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer inflation remained soft in June, as the 618 e-commerce event proved a damp squib.
- Pork inflation is reviving, though most other food prices are still falling.
- Headline producer price deflation eased in June, but largely thanks to international commodity inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Overall Japanese wage growth remained sluggish in May, though manufacturing pay rose faster.
- China’s foreign reserves were hit by currency- valuation effects and equity market outflows in June.
- The PBoC’s additional OMO flexibility is likely signalling upcoming government-bond sales.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC announced last week it will borrow government bonds from primary dealers…
- ...The Bank is likely to short bonds to drive up 10-year yields to 2.5% in H2, supporting CNY.
- The Caixin service s PMI dipped in June, as tourism activity cooled during the off-season.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Q2 Tankan reveals buoyant manufacturer profitability, despite testing market conditions...
- ...Largely explained by the weak JPY, spurring a surge in export value, while real exports are falling.
- Japan’s H2 outlook is clouded by the dip in the Juneservices PMI and the auto safety fiasco.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s June headline manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since April 2022.
- Exports continued to power ahead in June, thanks to semiconductor exports for AI applications.
- Rising import costs boost our conviction that the BoK will delay its first policy rate cut until Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI continued to outpace the official index in June…
- …reflecting better performance among light industries and high-tech than heavy industries.
- The construction index was hit by extreme weather conditions, masking any stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation rose a touch in June, due to the removal of energy subsidies…
- …But Japan plans to reinstate the subsidies, meaning little risk of a near-term inflation surge.
- Japan’s encouraging May export growth figure reflects price rises, while real exports fell slightly.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Xinhua yesterday announced the reform-focused Third Plenum will be held on July 15-to-17.
- We expect pro-business and-innovation reforms but no fundamental shift to consumption-based growth.
- Industrial profits hit a soft patch in May, hurt by rising operating costs, despite improved revenue growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s property market is still in the doldrums; prices and transactions are falling at pace.
- The secondary market is suffering bigger price falls due to higher inventory levels and consumer choice.
- The impact of re-lending facilities will not be felt immediately due to implementation problems.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
