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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Global Daily Monitor

7 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's consumer and job-market sentiment near historic lows

  • China’s consumer sentiment is near historic lows, weighed down by property- and job-market worries. 
  • Employment sentiment is nearly as feeble as at the global financial crisis low point.
  • More people expect broad inflation than deflation, which is largely confined to producer prices.

1 August 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ strikes a cautious tone, while staying put on interest rates

  • The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
  • The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
  • The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.

31 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks

  • H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
  • China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
  • The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.

29 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's involution and the squeeze on industrial profits

  • Involution (内卷), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
  • Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
  • Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.

25 July 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal

  • Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
  • ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
  • The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.

24 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's trade deal should bring forward BoJ's next rate hike

  • We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
  • The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
  • USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.

22 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan faces political shift; Korea navigates export risk and trade talks

  • Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
  • July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
  • A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.

18 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's exports slide in June, raising risk of technical recession

  • Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
  • Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical  recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
  • The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.

16 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation

  • .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
  • …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
  • Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.

15 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's 'glass half-full' money and credit data

  • China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance. 
  • The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish. 
  • M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn. 

11 July 2025 China+ Monitor The BoK paused easing cycle in July due to financial stability worries

  • The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
  • The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
  • We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.

10 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's producer deflation steepens as supply-side policy is planned

  • China’s producer deflation is entrenched, but the worsening in June was due to temporary factors.
  • Auto prices rose, after firms pledged faster supplier payments; other sectors are making supply policies.
  • Weak core consumer inflation is indicative of poor demand; all eyes on the end-month Politburo meeting.

8 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites

  • Japan’s wages took a big knock from a bonus plunge in May, as exporters’ profits were hurt by the tariff war.
  • The headline large-manufacturer Tankan was oddly steady in Q2, despite the tariff war.
  • Consumption still looks soft, despite one-off factors boosting May’s household spending data.

4 July 2025 China+ Monitor Hong Kong dollar peg here to stay, despite talk of its demise

  • The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
  • The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
  • Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.

2 July 2025 China+ Monitor Both China's manufacturing PMI rises led by output; deflation lingers

  • The Caixin PMI rebounded more strongly than the official manufacturing index in June…
  • …Deflation pressures are festering, however, likely forcing regulatory curbs on excessive competition.
  • Korea’s manufacturing PMI is starting to rise from its sickbed, now the election has reduced political risk.

1 July 2025 China+ Monitor PBoC signals less urgency for policy support as PMIs improve

  • The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
  • The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
  • The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.

25 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's flash PMIs reveal areas of resilience amid tariff storm

  • Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
  • Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
  • The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.

24 June 2025 China+ Monitor Temporary export surge belies US-Korea trade frictions

  • Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
  • Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
  • The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.

19 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes

  • Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
  • Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
  • The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.

18 June 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ pares back the reduction of its JGB purchases from next April

  • The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
  • …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
  • We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
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