China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor
- The outbound investment crackdown goes beyond brokers, foreshadowing greater economic control.
- Investors should be aware of the potential implications for assets from such measures in China‘s policy agenda.
- Hong Kong’s PMI partially recovered in May, thanks to Golden Week holiday demand as well as construction.
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
- China’s May PMIs point to a short-term improvement in construction and manufacturing.
- Still, Q2 average industrial output growth is likely to be below 5%, raising the chances of targeted support.
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with petrol-car sales almost halving year-over-year in May.
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
- Industrial profits accelerated in April, supported by PPI reflation and better margins in the upstream sector.
- Gains were uneven, skewed towards energy and high-tech sectors, but broader momentum is improving.
- Profit growth will likely ease later this year as external demand softens and energy-price support fades.
- President Trump’s visit to China achieved no major breakthroughs, but strategic dialogue will continue…
- …Underwhelming business deals were signed, while no decisions were made on extending the trade truce.
- Japan’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, but Hormuz risks complicate the BoJ’s rate-hike decision in June.
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
- China’s industrial profits rose in Q1 on lower costs and higher revenues from precautionary front-loading.
- Producer reflation supported the rise, but was more evident in metals and upstream energy sectors.
- Profit growth will face pressure from war-related costs, fading front-loading and weak domestic demand.
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
- China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, as import strength outpaced exports, hit by payback.
- The import surge was led by high-tech items, with price effects outweighing geopolitical energy dynamics.
- Exports were distorted by LNY effects, but underlying momentum was notably weaker for the Global South.
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- China has ramped up energy production from alternative sources in the wake of the Iran war.
- China has seen limited trade spillover; East Asian PMIs show a common theme of higher oil-driven input costs.
- Hong Kong’s PMI plunged on war uncertainty, with price pressures yet to feed through.
- The official March PMIs support our view that China will be relatively resilient to the energy-price shock.
- Output and demand activity indicators were solid, despite the surging manufacturing input price gauge.
- Private-sector sentiment took a small dent in March, but nothing like the fall amid last year’s tariff war.
- Governor Ueda said yesterday he expects a moderate rise in underlying inflation...
- ...The BoJ’s base case appears to be a swift oil-price fall, with little effect on the long-term inflation outlook.
- But persistently sky-high energy prices would drive up food prices and could force an April rate hike.
- China residential property market remains in the doldrums, with a 43% drop in sales month-to-date…
- …Construction area is still declining, while developer funding improved slightly thanks to policy support.
- Korea’s 20-day exports maintained robust growth in March, riding strong semiconductor demand.
- The BoJ held the policy rate yesterday, unsurprisingly given the ever-changing oil-price situation.
- Governor Ueda is keeping options open, amid different views on inflation among voting members.
- Our base case is a July rate hike, assuming oil prices fall in the coming months; but April is not ruled out.
