China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- China has doubled its financial support for white- listed property projects, aiming to steady the sector.
- China’s exports surprised negatively in September, due to slowing demand from the G7 and BRICS.
- Uncertainty in the external environment has risen amid trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s September credit data point to a continued deterioration in private-sector borrowing demand.
- Government bond issuance remains robust, but the key is rapid use of the funds for investment.
- A modest fall in fiscal deposits suggests the policy growth pivot is gaining traction, albeit slowly.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer prices are on the brink of deflation while producer price deflation is deepening.
- September’s core inflation slowed to just above zero percent, suggesting muted domestic demand.
- Efficient implementation of existing stimulus should support growth, but more fiscal stimulus is needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s National Day holiday saw only a modest tourism-sector boost, despite the jump in stocks.
- Consumers have more wealth tied up in property, whose outlook is still murky.
- The NDRC yesterday focused on better implementation of existing fiscal support.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s FX reserves rose more than expected in September as the Fed started cutting interest rates.
- Foreign equity flows have likely improved, as China announced support measures at end-September.
- Looking ahead, a weaker dollar and further Fed cuts should bode well for China’s valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Falling oil prices pulled down Korea’s headline inflation in September; geopolitical risks loom.
- The September manufacturing PMI declined sharply, pointing to softening demand and output.
- The inflation and PMI data are likely to lead to a BoK rate cut this month, despite mounting debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean working-day-adjusted export growth remained robust in September, slowing only a little.
- Semiconductor shipments drove over 60% of the headline export growth.
- The BoK is likely to cut the policy rate this month, despite worries over rising household-debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China's manufacturing PMIs point to shrinking activity, while the service sector continues to slow.
- Construction seems to be stabilising; we expect a stimulus impact soon, on faster bond issuance.
- Measures announced should lift short-term growth, but expect more monetary and fiscal support in Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
- The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
- The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
- China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
- We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
- Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
- A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August headline credit growth was pretty steady, but due only to government-bond issuance...
- ...Private credit demand looks weak, and on-balance-sheet bill financing was suspiciously large.
- The PBoC is preparing “incremental policy” measures, likely an RRR cut and structural tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
- Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
- Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
- Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
- Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports surprised to the upside, thanks to a surge in EU and BRICS shipments and car demand.
- Imports imploded, reflecting rapidly deteriorating domestic demand; more stimulus is needed.
- Foreign exchange reserves rose in August due to a higher valuation effect on currency and bond assets.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s disappointing August core consumer inflation data point to persistently weak demand.
- Headline CPI was boosted by a short-term spike in fresh vegetable prices.
- A sharper drop in producer prices reflects excess industrial supply and the laggardly stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth held up well in July, thanks to both bonuses and regular pay rises.
- Headline wage growth is likely to fade in the coming months, but that won’t shift the BoJ.
- The timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike is dependent on its perception of market risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August services PMIs indicate steady demand growth, but activity was hit by bad weather.
- Services firms cut prices, in response to fierce competition, despite rising costs.
- Consumers remain much more keen to spend on tourism rather than big-ticket items or housing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
- Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
- Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
