China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
- The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
- The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
- China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
- We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s August developer-funding figures improved only because of policy support, namely loans.
- Home sales remained weak in August, as the impact of the May policy support is fading.
- A long, grinding recovery is in prospect, with no sign of a change in approach from drip-fed support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August headline credit growth was pretty steady, but due only to government-bond issuance...
- ...Private credit demand looks weak, and on-balance-sheet bill financing was suspiciously large.
- The PBoC is preparing “incremental policy” measures, likely an RRR cut and structural tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s retail sales growth faded in August, as people held back on big-ticket purchases.
- Bad weather delayed construction, despite a large funding boost from government-bond issuance.
- Policymakers are unlikely to hit the policy panic button, even if it risks missing 2024’s growth target.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
- Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
- Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s exports surprised to the upside, thanks to a surge in EU and BRICS shipments and car demand.
- Imports imploded, reflecting rapidly deteriorating domestic demand; more stimulus is needed.
- Foreign exchange reserves rose in August due to a higher valuation effect on currency and bond assets.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s disappointing August core consumer inflation data point to persistently weak demand.
- Headline CPI was boosted by a short-term spike in fresh vegetable prices.
- A sharper drop in producer prices reflects excess industrial supply and the laggardly stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth held up well in July, thanks to both bonuses and regular pay rises.
- Headline wage growth is likely to fade in the coming months, but that won’t shift the BoJ.
- The timing of the BoJ’s next rate hike is dependent on its perception of market risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August services PMIs indicate steady demand growth, but activity was hit by bad weather.
- Services firms cut prices, in response to fierce competition, despite rising costs.
- Consumers remain much more keen to spend on tourism rather than big-ticket items or housing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
- Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
- Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
- Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
- Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s commercial banks left loan prime rates unchanged in August as their NIM hit a record low.
- The PBoC is in no rush to lower policy rates; fiscal policy is bearing the burden of driving the recovery.
- Q2 inward direct investment was negative again; 2024 is set for the largest net outflows since the 2000s.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- July activity data was unspectacular, with slowing growth in FAI and production and weak retail sales.
- China's fixed investment growth fell unexpectedly, with infrastructure investment the main drag.
- FAI growth would have been weaker without the contribution from equipment replacement plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China's total social financing growth ticked up in July, but credit demand remained very weak.
- Net new loans fell for first time in 19 years, with notable weakness in household and business lending.
- The PBoC are trying hard to raise long-term bond yields, but we will wait to see if that can be sustained.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s June wage rise beat market expectations, in both nominal and real terms.
- The rise was largely driven by a spike in special cash payments, rather than regular pay.
- Governor Ueda will, however, cite the wage uptick as justifying last week’s BoJ’s policy rate hike.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Weak Korean export rebound was disappointing; working-day adjusted growth actually eased sharply.
- Deeper dive in US shipment growth was the driver, coupled with a double-digit plunge in car exports.
- Firming KRW and easing cost burden give BoK more room to cut rates, but unlikely to hasten the timeline.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
