China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global
- Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
- Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
- Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng on Wednesday hinted the Bank is likely to start bond trading.
- The definition of M1 will probably be broadened, after the dramatic plunge in May.
- The Bank expects credit growth to remain slow, given China’s changing economic growth model.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
- Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
- May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
- Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
- Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
- Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
- May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Revised data confirm Japan’s weak Q1 GDP performance, especially private consumption.
- The biggest short-term growth risk is the auto safety-test fiasco, encompassing five more firms.
- China’s May foreign reserves rebounded thanks to currency valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
- Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
- Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s May manufacturing PMIs sent mixed signals, reflecting the uneven recovery.
- Production continues to power ahead of demand, which 60% of manufacturers view as “insufficient”.
- Stimulus funds have yet to boost construction, but steelmakers are optimistic about the year ahead.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
- The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk .
- Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Korean 20-day exports slowed sharply in May because of working-day effects.
- The underlying trend is actually improving after adjustment. Chip shipments remain the major driver.
- We expect no change at the upcoming BoK meeting but have pushed back our first rate cut to Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Policymakers on Friday announced a raft of property support measures aimed at tackling oversupply...
- ...But the funding allocated to buy up unsold housing inventory is just the start, and more will be needed.
- In April, second-hand housing prices plunged at their steepest rate since September 2014.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s preliminary Q1 GDP surprised the market to the downside, with growth turning negative.
- Weak domestic demand, such as business investment and consumption, was the culprit.
- The sluggish growth does not warrant an early rate hike, as markets suggest; we stick to our Q4 call.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China consumer prices rose in April, after volatility in Q1 caused by holidays and base effects.
- The CPI changes were driven by higher energy and core inflation, but domestic demand was still feeble.
- The PBoC will use “flexible, precise and effective” monetary policy to promote reflation.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
- April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
- Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
- Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
- While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+