China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- Japan’s new PM Takaichi will put together a stimulus package to alleviate households’ cost-of-living crisis.
- September exports trended higher on improving intra-regional demand, driven by chip and car shipments.
- The BoJ will likely delay its rate hike to December now that Ms. Takaichi has been appointed as the new PM.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
- Ms. Takaichi’s win in Japan’s LDP leadership election reduces the likelihood of a BoJ hike in October.
- China’s FX reserves rose in September, fuelled by non-valuation effects, such as capital inflows.
- We think USD strength and the Fed’s rate path will be the key drivers of China’s FX reserves into early 2026.
- Korea’s working-day-adjusted export value growth fell sharply in September, partly due to base effects.
- Manufacturing activity grew the most in 13 months, but the US ‘chip content’ tariff renews uncertainty.
- We expect the BoK to cut rates by 25bp in Q4, once financial stability risk from the housing market lessens.
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
