China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Daily Monitor
- China’s Ministry of Finance yesterday announced ultra-long special-bond issuance will start on Friday.
- April’s credit data hit a wall, due to government-bond and bankers’ acceptances repayments .
- Rising government-bond issuance should lift bond yields and credit growth from May onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China export growth bounced in April, thanks partly to receding high base from last year.
- Adjusted for seasonal factors, monthly exports actually steepened its fall, pointing to still fragile recovery.
- While exports share to US decreased over the years, those to Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- April’s RMB343B PSL net repayment is probably related to the PBoC’s desire to cushion bond yields.
- The April Caixin services activity PMI barely slowed, a rosier picture than the drop in the official index.
- The Caixin index is tracking the service-sector output data better than the official index.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s April manufacturing PMI points to improving output and demand trends year-to-date.
- But burgeoning cost pressures are making firms cautious on hiring and inventory purchasing.
- The BoK is likely to worry about these cost pressures disrupting the slowing trend in consumer inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s WDA exports have grown solidly in recent months, pointing to a sustained recovery in demand.
- Semiconductors accounted for 70% of growth in April; both US and Chinese demand was resilient.
- Weak currency played a role in supporting exports; the level of export values is still below that in 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both China’s April PMIs agree that manufacturing output is going from strength to strength...
- ...But the official gauge shows demand fading slightly, while the Caixin indicates further robustness.
- It was announced at yesterday’s Politburo meeting the reform-oriented Third Plenum will be held in July.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S RECOVERY MAKING HEADWAY
- - JPY PRESSURE GIVING THE BOJ A HEADACHE
- - STRONG EXPORTS LIFT KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s structural problems, notably in the property sector, are limiting the efficacy of interest rate cuts.
- But varied public views on the management of bond yields hint at a broader internal policy debate.
- Labour-market issues are compounded by credit constraints for private firms, especially SMEs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged in April after the PBoC’s earlier decision to hold the MLF.
- The PBoC has less room to cut rates in the near term as market bets on a delayed Fed cut rate increase.
- Early Korean export data show strong memory-chip demand; US shipments remain solid.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s exports grew solidly in March, thanks to burgeoning Chinese demand and a weaker JPY.
- Demand from the US and EU slowed, car-related shipments fell sharply, but chip exports soared.
- The export recovery will be safeguarded by the ICT upturn, while capital goods demand should improve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
- But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
- …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, likely wary of currency pressure.
- Social financing growth slowed in March, due to soft domestic demand and lower bond issuance.
- Government-bond issuance is likely to pick up in Q2, the key plank of short-term growth support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
- Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
- The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
- A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
- Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Tankan for large manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in a year.
- The silver lining is optimism for the non-manufacturing sector, storming to its highest since 1991.
- Nothing in the survey will surprise the BoJ, and we expect interest rates to reach 0.20% by end-2024.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
- A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
- But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
- Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
- We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
- Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
- But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+