China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Global
- China’s next Five-Year Plan will focus on long-term strategies in high-tech, energy, and national security…
- …As well as adherence to dual circulation, and maybe an industrial plan to succeed ‘Made in China 2025’.
- China’s consumers and producers are still mired in deflation despite recent improvements.
- The re-escalation of trade frictions highlights the lack
of trust between the US and China; more talks needed.
- September’s export rebound was partly due to base
effects, which mask weaker monthly momentum.
- The volatile nature of US-China trade relations still
poses a downside risk to China’s near-term growth.
- China’s industrial development model has sustained growth and resulted in world-class sectors like EVs.
- Policymaker s will aim to curb the undesired side effects of excess capacity while keeping its essence.
- They will aim to spur demand, but not at the price of limiting industrial and technological-led growth.
- Governor Ueda’s upbeat comments on the Q3 Tankan lay the ground for an October policy rate hike.
- Economic conditions are soft, and political and trade risks linger, but the BoJ is keen to normalise policy.
- The Bank is likely to recognise a window of opportunity amid relative market stability to normalise policy.
- China is preparing to counter the recent demand and investment slump with targeted stimulus…
- …Policy banks will likely provide RMB500B—leveraged up several times—to unblock local project investment.
- Steady Tokyo consumer inflation won’t shift the BoJ’s determination to normalise interest rates.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
- We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
- The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.
- China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
- Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
- No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.
- A US executive order finally formalises its trade deal with Japan, ending uncertainty for Japan’s economy.
- Real wages have risen for the first time since December, boosting October rate-hike bets.
- The BoJ is likely to look past weaker ‘same-sample’ data, with trade worries fading.
- History suggests that China’s stock-market rally could boost GDP but won’t do much for consumer sentiment.
- Policymakers will opt for targeted policy support, lest broad easing drives excessive funds into stocks.
- Tokyo headline inflation slowed in August due to energy subsidies; food inflation remains elevated.
- Japan’s headline inflation slowed, despite a modest uptick in food inflation.
- The agriculture ministry has revised its diagnosis of the causes of red-hot rice prices; no easy fix is in sight.
- Stubbornly elevated food inflation strengthens the case for the BoJ to resume rate hikes in October.
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
- China’s monthly export momentum slowed for a second straight month as the US reprieve expiry nears.
- Easing of the seasonally adjusted rate likely reflects fading stockpiling and transshipment demand in July.
- Shipments of pharma and rare earth surged after the ‘London consensus’ and ahead of Section 232 tariffs.
- China’s July manufacturing PMIs were buffeted by headwinds from trade risk and bad weather.
- But sentiment improved slightly, showing business confidence in new products and markets.
- The dipping construction PMI partly reflects a downshift in local-government fiscal stimulus.
- Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
- But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
- The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.
- Headline consumer inflation eased in June, as energy subsidies took effect.
- Rice prices are star ting to fall week-to-week, but broader food inflation is picking up.
- The bond market will probably be jittery after the Upper House election yesterday.
- Valuation effects explain 60% of China’s foreign exchange reserves rise in June.
- A rush to ship exports ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline likely contributed to the rise in reserves.
- Beijing’s moderate 2030 consumption growth target offers clues about China’s growth strategy.
- Chinese policymakers are seemingly rethinking policy to rein in unbridled competition, after prior false starts.
- The key is political will—and a plan—to overcome vested interests, both local governments’ and firms’.
- Getting it right should lead to firmer pricing, stronger profits and less wasted capital investment.
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
- China’s May steady broad credit growth was based mainly on strong government bond issuance, again.
- Private sector credit demand still dull; the M1 uptick isn’t meaningful and will probably reverse in June.
- The financial system is absorbing rapid government bond issuance with no sign of strain; PBoC has tools.
