China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Global
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
- President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week marked a gradual improvement in bilateral relations...
- ...Which is likely to continue while Mr. Trump is in dealmaking mode to salvage his low popularity.
- The two countries’ different approaches to the AI transition should diffuse one key source of strain.
- The Xi-Trump summit is likely to be about optics and relationship building with no major policy breakthrough.
- China enters the talks with stronger leverage, as its trade exposure to US demand has declined sharply.
- Markets should monitor Phase Three trade talks, any Boeing deals, Iran war coordination, Taiwan arms sales.
- China’s consumer inflation rose 0.2pp to 1.2% in April, on the back of fuel-price rises.
- The government will continue to soften the impact of high international energy prices on end-users.
- Industry is likely to bear the brunt of higher energy costs, amid still-sluggish domestic demand..
- A US delegation was already in Beijing last week, paving the way for a likely visit from Mr. Trump this Thursday.
- April’s rebound in FX reserves reflects swings in market risk appetite as the war in Iran continues.
- China’s MoF plans to issue a record level of Dim Sum bonds in Hong Kong to rebalance liquidity offshore.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
- President Trump’s mid-May Beijing visit faces risk of another delay amid persistent Middle East tensions.
- China’s relative insulation from the war has supported Beijing’s position in discussing trade terms with the US.
- Japan’s manufacturing is boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks, while services slow.
- China is expediting fiscal measures to support investment by the end of H1...
- ...Providing flexibility for additional support in H2 if the Iran war drags on and hurts global growth.
- The residential property market is enjoying a ‘little spring’ with rising sale s, but a real recovery is still far off.
- China’s first rise in producer prices in 41 months was partly due to the global energy-price shock...
- ...But it does not indicate an improvement in demand fundamentals nor the exit from low inflation.
- Producer prices for consumer goods continue to fall, while core consumer inflation is subdued.
- China’s 18.9% jump in manufacturing profits in January-to-February was largely due to high-tech sectors.
- Profit growth is likely to be hit by higher oil prices, but the damage should be less severe than in 2022.
- Auto sales should improve from their poor start to the year, but brutal competition is squeezing profits.
- China’s national long-term care reform should boost GDP by almost 1% by 2030...
- ...But more is needed to replace the 6%-of-GDP decline in housing investment since 2021.
- The BoJ’s new natural interest rate and CPI estimate don’t change the big picture; oil prices are key.
- China is seeking to rehabilitate private firms, as they can support national goals in tech development.
- Private firms have made some gains over the past couple of years, but are still recovering.
- They are bullish on prospects for sale s and consumer prices, but still glum on producer prices.
- We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
- ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
- Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.
- China’s 15th Five-Year Plan confirms the emphasis on technology and manufacturing to power growth...
- ...We expect continued success on this front, but little progress in rebalancing to consumption and services.
- Services development is hampered by low education; 65-to-70% of workers lack a high-school diploma.
- Governor Ueda’s musings on a March or April policy rate hike are likely intended to bolster JPY…
- …Less currency pressure and low headline inflation will likely allow the BoJ to delay hiking until Q4.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged up only 0.1pp to a still restrained 1.6% in February.
- We think the market has got it wrong in expecting a BoJ policy rate hike in April; Q4 is more likely.
- Headline inflation is likely to fall, while PM Takaichi will probably prove more fiscally pragmatic than feared.
- A case is emerging for a more positive view on Japan’s outlook, with the budget as the first test.
- China’s policymakers have a sophisticated analysis of low inflation and are more explicitly aiming for reflation.
- But this is not yet translating into a change in short-term monetary policy thinking.
- Broad credit growth continued to slow in January, with policy-bank-backed stimulus still coming through.
- China will probably cut its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5-to-5%, following a flurry of local cuts to targets.
- The message is to prioritise medium-term goals, such as promoting tech sectors, over short-term growth.
- Private capital is flowing into AI, notably robotics, and clean energy at home and abroad.
- Tokyo headline inflation fell 0.5pp to 1.5% in January, but driven mainly by one-off factors.
- Inflation should slow this year, be cause of cooling food prices, despite the recent bout of JPY weakness.
- The BoJ is likely to next hike rates in Q4, providing currency moves are manageable.
- The BoJ held rates on Friday, despite rising bond and currency pressure, linked to fiscal policy worries.
- PM Takaichi should emerge from the February 8 election stronger, allowing her to cut taxes.
- The likely tax cut on food will drag inflation by 1pp in 2026, and can be funded from rising tax revenue.
