China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Global
- President Trump’s mid-May Beijing visit faces risk of another delay amid persistent Middle East tensions.
- China’s relative insulation from the war has supported Beijing’s position in discussing trade terms with the US.
- Japan’s manufacturing is boosted by precautionary front-loading amid supply shocks, while services slow.
- China is expediting fiscal measures to support investment by the end of H1...
- ...Providing flexibility for additional support in H2 if the Iran war drags on and hurts global growth.
- The residential property market is enjoying a ‘little spring’ with rising sale s, but a real recovery is still far off.
- China’s first rise in producer prices in 41 months was partly due to the global energy-price shock...
- ...But it does not indicate an improvement in demand fundamentals nor the exit from low inflation.
- Producer prices for consumer goods continue to fall, while core consumer inflation is subdued.
- China’s 18.9% jump in manufacturing profits in January-to-February was largely due to high-tech sectors.
- Profit growth is likely to be hit by higher oil prices, but the damage should be less severe than in 2022.
- Auto sales should improve from their poor start to the year, but brutal competition is squeezing profits.
- China’s national long-term care reform should boost GDP by almost 1% by 2030...
- ...But more is needed to replace the 6%-of-GDP decline in housing investment since 2021.
- The BoJ’s new natural interest rate and CPI estimate don’t change the big picture; oil prices are key.
- China is seeking to rehabilitate private firms, as they can support national goals in tech development.
- Private firms have made some gains over the past couple of years, but are still recovering.
- They are bullish on prospects for sale s and consumer prices, but still glum on producer prices.
- We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
- ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
- Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.
- China’s 15th Five-Year Plan confirms the emphasis on technology and manufacturing to power growth...
- ...We expect continued success on this front, but little progress in rebalancing to consumption and services.
- Services development is hampered by low education; 65-to-70% of workers lack a high-school diploma.
- Governor Ueda’s musings on a March or April policy rate hike are likely intended to bolster JPY…
- …Less currency pressure and low headline inflation will likely allow the BoJ to delay hiking until Q4.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged up only 0.1pp to a still restrained 1.6% in February.
- We think the market has got it wrong in expecting a BoJ policy rate hike in April; Q4 is more likely.
- Headline inflation is likely to fall, while PM Takaichi will probably prove more fiscally pragmatic than feared.
- A case is emerging for a more positive view on Japan’s outlook, with the budget as the first test.
- China’s policymakers have a sophisticated analysis of low inflation and are more explicitly aiming for reflation.
- But this is not yet translating into a change in short-term monetary policy thinking.
- Broad credit growth continued to slow in January, with policy-bank-backed stimulus still coming through.
- China will probably cut its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5-to-5%, following a flurry of local cuts to targets.
- The message is to prioritise medium-term goals, such as promoting tech sectors, over short-term growth.
- Private capital is flowing into AI, notably robotics, and clean energy at home and abroad.
- Tokyo headline inflation fell 0.5pp to 1.5% in January, but driven mainly by one-off factors.
- Inflation should slow this year, be cause of cooling food prices, despite the recent bout of JPY weakness.
- The BoJ is likely to next hike rates in Q4, providing currency moves are manageable.
- The BoJ held rates on Friday, despite rising bond and currency pressure, linked to fiscal policy worries.
- PM Takaichi should emerge from the February 8 election stronger, allowing her to cut taxes.
- The likely tax cut on food will drag inflation by 1pp in 2026, and can be funded from rising tax revenue.
- The Bank of Korea cited excessive KRW volatility as its reason for holding last week, while growth is improving.
- Rising upside risks to growth and inflation, plus FX volatility, are driving a return to a neutral policy stance.
- We still expect a final rate cut in H2, due to uncertainty over global trade policy and the AI cycle.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs ended the year on a positive note, but thanks to short-term effects.
- The construction PMI rose to its highest since March, but due to mild winter weather rather than stimulus.
- Policymakers will monitor the quasi-fiscal investment stimulus, while making only minor policy tweaks.
- The BoJ raised the policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% on Friday, surprising no one after earlier signalling.
- Governor Ueda struck a neutral tone when addressing the prospect of further rate hikes.
- Sluggish non-unionised wage rises and fragile growth will likely limit the BoJ to only one rate hike in 2026.
- China’s Central Economic Work Conference last week was a damp squib...
- ...Unsurprisingly, given the relative calm compared with last year ’s impending tariff drama.
- Policymakers are signalling confidence, meaning they will stick to broad settings for 2026, with a few tweaks..
- China’s inflation outturn was a mixed bag, with CPIrising but PPI reflation seeming to lose momentum.
- A closer look reveals the CPI jump was due to transient factors, while PPI was dragged down by base effects.
- Weak domestic demand persisted in November, with all eyes on the CEWC for hints on future policy direction.
