China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Strong government bond issuance cushions overall credit growth, but only modest signs that existing fiscal stimulus is gaining traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s consumer prices are on the brink of deflation while producer price deflation is deepening.
- September’s core inflation slowed to just above zero percent, suggesting muted domestic demand.
- Efficient implementation of existing stimulus should support growth, but more fiscal stimulus is needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s finance minister on Saturday announced the intention to provide further support, but no detail…
- ...That’s to be expected, given only the legislature can approve additional fiscal support measures.
- Further targeted support is likely for Q4, but a mega-package to address the root ills will take longer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's nominal wage growth slows, as bonuses effect fades
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s National Day holiday saw only a modest tourism-sector boost, despite the jump in stocks.
- Consumers have more wealth tied up in property, whose outlook is still murky.
- The NDRC yesterday focused on better implementation of existing fiscal support.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s FX reserves rose more than expected in September as the Fed started cutting interest rates.
- Foreign equity flows have likely improved, as China announced support measures at end-September.
- Looking ahead, a weaker dollar and further Fed cuts should bode well for China’s valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s stock market rally, against a backdrop of poor economic fundamentals, resembles 2015…
- …when the stock market went through a boom/bust cycle long before structural reforms got under way.
- History suggests China can take a while to find a good policy solution to difficult structural problems.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Falling oil prices pulled down Korea’s headline inflation in September; geopolitical risks loom.
- The September manufacturing PMI declined sharply, pointing to softening demand and output.
- The inflation and PMI data are likely to lead to a BoK rate cut this month, despite mounting debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Plunge in Korean manufacturing PMI raises the likelihood of earlier BoK cut
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese manufacturers' sentiment is steady
Korean underlying export growth remains strong
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean working-day-adjusted export growth remained robust in September, slowing only a little.
- Semiconductor shipments drove over 60% of the headline export growth.
- The BoK is likely to cut the policy rate this month, despite worries over rising household-debt risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China's manufacturing PMIs point to shrinking activity, while the service sector continues to slow.
- Construction seems to be stabilising; we expect a stimulus impact soon, on faster bond issuance.
- Measures announced should lift short-term growth, but expect more monetary and fiscal support in Q4.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Thursday’s Politburo meeting confirmed the policy shift to growth support away from debt control.
- Government investment should pick up now local officials have clearer policy directives.
- But policymakers’ more supportive stance for property isn’t matched by new policy ideas.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Politburo confirms top-level priority on achieving growth target, but only hints at further fiscal support
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MLF rate cut in line with expectations after the PBoC's monetary easing plan yesterday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s sluggish September flash manufacturing PMI remained below 50 for a third straight month.
- The September flash services activity index, by contrast, remains strong.
- The rise in the services output price index suggests continued services inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC's policy support should stoke short-term market sentiment and growth, but won't solve China's structural woes
Japan's flash PMIs show mixed performance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- PBoC Governor Pan yesterday announced a set of broad monetary policy support measures.
- These are likely to give a short-term lift to markets, and growth, especially if fiscal policy is stepped up.
- But they don’t address the underlying structural issues, meaning growth is likely to slow again.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The sharp slowdown in unadjusted 20-day Korean export data masks the underlying strength.
- China’s slowing growth and heightened geopolitics remain key risks to Korea’s export recovery.
- We reiterate our call for an October BoK rate cut, or maybe November if financial stability worries persist.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
