November 2024 - China+ Chartbook

• -CHINA’S 2024 GDP TARGET IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
• - BOJ TO HOLD FAST UNTIL JANUARY, BARRING JPY SHOCK
• - BOK TO FOCUS ON COOLING INFLATION AND GROWTH

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 November 2024 China+ Monitor October bump in headline Japanese exports belies soft real demand

• Japan’s headline export growth improved in October, thanks to demand from non-traditional markets.
• This was largely due to price effects, however, with real export growth weakening in October.
• China’s government has paved the way for early issuance of 2025 special bond quota to support.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 November 2024: China's October activity data show promise

Trade-in subsidies lift retail sales of autos and consumer goods 
Residential sales stabilise
Manufacturing output making steady progress

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach

• China’s October activity data show household spending ticking up, on goods and property.
• Ignore the dip in headline industrial output; manufacturing production is still robust.
• The full-year growth target is in reach, thanks to rising service sector activity; but 2025 is another matter.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's deflation risks set to linger well into 2025 amid Trump victory

• China’s consumer inflation is dragged down by volatile food and energy prices, but core prices are improving.
• Producer deflation steepened, masking construction-material price rises, likely due to stimulus demand.
• Mr. Trump’s US election victory will depress Chinese growth and likely keep inflation subdued for longer.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's October activity data to see a broad, but fragile, improvement

• China’s earlier stimulus efforts should give a modest lift to October’s activity data, due out tomorrow.
• But this is a fragile rise, dependent on further policy support, just as external risks are mounting.
• December’s Central Economic Work Conference should bring more piecemeal support.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's credit growth at historic low; impact from stimulus yet to show

• China credit demand growth hit a record low in October, with TSF growth at its weakest since 2003.
• Loans to the real economy fell further due to slowing corporate and household borrowing.
• The economic support measures so far have given China’s credit demand limited uplift.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: China's RMB10T debt-swap plan isn't the last word in addressing

China's RMB10T debt-swap plan isn't the last word in addressing its malaise

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 November 2024 China+ Monitor China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump's election win

• China’s National People’s Congress approved only a debt-swap plan on Friday, no direct stimulus.
• But the Finance Minister indicated that more measure s, for property and banks, are coming.
• China’s October foreign reserves plunged, in part probably due to bond-market outflows.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's calibrated response to the return of President Trump

• Mr. Trump’s win likely means China’s NPC will today approve only modest stimulus to boost confidence.
• But a bigger multi-year package is likely on the way, with more leeway to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
• The BoJ is likely to favour growth with a slower pace of rate hikes but be alert to the risk of JPY weakness.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's service sector ticks up, thanks to policy lift to sentiment

• China’s October Caixin services PMI points to stronger activity in the month.
• Services firms’ sentiment is reviving, as policy support lifts consumption and some property sales.
• But the longevity of this burgeoning rebound hinges on further policy support, with news likely on Friday.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, October

In one line: Korea’s export momentum wanes in October amid despite semiconductor boost

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, October

In one line: China’s Caixin manufacturing PMi rebounds as stimulus starts to take effect

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, Korea, October

In one line: Korea’s manufacturing sector sees mixed signals as PMI holds steady in October

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 November 2024

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMi rebounds as stimulus starts to take effect

Korea’s export momentum wanes in October amid despite semiconductor boost

Korea’s manufacturing sector sees mixed signals as PMI holds steady in October

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 October 2024

China's industrial profit plunge underscores urgent need for stimulus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, October

In one line: Tokyo inflation slows, but core pressure remain firm ahead of Sunday’s election; BoJ likely stands pat in next week’s meeting

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: MLF rate, China, October

In one line: China’s MLF rate unchanged after September’s cut; Tight funding conditions in banks open window for RRR cut

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25 October 2024

Tokyo inflation slows, but core pressure remain firm ahead of Sunday’s election; BoJ likely stands pat in next week’s meeting

China’s MLF rate unchanged after September’s cut; Tight funding conditions in banks open window for RRR cut

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, October

In one line: Chineses banks lower LPR to preserve NIM amid falling mortgage rates for existing borrowers.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+